11602nam 22005293 450 991080696660332120220307080205.01-4648-1754-510.1596/978-1-4648-1753-3(MiAaPQ)EBC29100758(Au-PeEL)EBL29100758(CKB)21348237900041(NjHacI)9921348237900041(EXLCZ)992134823790004120220307d2022 uy 0engurcnu||||||||txtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierThe Long Shadow of Informality Challenges and Policies1st ed. :World Bank Publications,2022.©2021.1 online resource (353 pages)Print version: Ohnsorge, Franziska The Long Shadow of Informality : World Bank Publications,c2022 9781464817533 Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Summary of Contents -- Table of Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Authors -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Overview -- Motivation -- Key findings and policy messages -- Synopsis -- Future research directions -- References -- PART I: Characteristics of the Informal Economy -- Chapter 2 Understanding the Informal Economy: Concepts and Trends -- Introduction -- Definition of informality -- Database of informality measures -- Size and evolution of the informal economy -- Consistency among the various measures of informality -- Cyclical features of the informal economy -- Conclusion -- Annex 2A: Estimation methodologies -- Annex 2B: Tables -- References -- Chapter 3 Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal- and Formal-Economy Business Cycles -- Introduction -- Literature review: Linkages between formal and informal sectors -- Data and methodology -- Synchronization of formal and informal business cycles -- Causal linkages between formal- and informal-economy business cycles -- Explaining the cyclicality of the informal sector -- Conclusion -- Annex 3A: Theory behind the cyclicality of the DGE-based estimates -- Annex 3B: Model specifications for measuring co-movement among informality measures -- Annex 3C: Causal linkages between formal- and informal-economy business cycles -- Annex 3D: Calibrating DGE estimates using survey-based self-employment data -- References -- PART II: Country and Regional Dimensions -- Chapter 4 Lagging Behind: Informality and Development -- Introduction -- Links between informality and development challenges -- Informality and economic correlates -- Informality and institutions -- Informality and SDGs related to human development -- Informality and SDGs related to infrastructure.Finding the needle in the haystack: The most robust correlates -- Conclusion -- Annex 4A: Meta-regression analysis -- Annex 4B: Regression analysis -- Annex 4C: Bayesian model averaging approach -- Annex 4D: Tables -- References -- Chapter 5 Informality in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Regional Dimensions -- Introduction -- Informality in EMDEs -- East Asia and Pacific -- Europe and Central Asia -- Latin America and the Caribbean -- Middle East and North Africa -- South Asia -- Sub-Saharan Africa -- Conclusion -- References -- PART III: Policies -- Chapter 6 Tackling Informality: Policy Options -- Introduction -- Data and methodology -- Fiscal measures -- Other policies -- Conclusion -- Annex 6A: Policies and informality -- Annex 6B: Tables -- References -- Boxes -- 2.1 How does informality aggravate the impact of COVID-19? -- 4.1 Informality and wage inequality -- 4.2 Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal firms -- 4.3 Informality, poverty, and income inequality -- 6.1 Financial development and the informal economy -- Figures -- 1.1 Informality: Main features -- 1.2 Informality: Extent and evolution -- 1.3 Formal- and informal-economy business cycles in EMDEs -- 1.4 Development challenges and informality -- 1.5 Informality in EMDE regions -- 1.6 Policies to address challenges of informality -- 2.1 Informality: Magnitude, variety, and development challenges -- B2.1.1 Informality in EMDEs -- B2.1.2 Features of the informal sector -- B2.1.3 Development challenges -- 2.2 Informality and development -- 2.3 Informality in EMDE regions -- 2.4 Evolution of informality in advanced economies and EMDEs, 1990-2018 -- 2.5 Downward trends in informality, 1990-2018 -- 2.6 Consistency among various informality measures -- 2.7 Volatility of formal and informal economies, 1990-2018.2.8 Cyclical features of formal and informal business cycles -- 2.9 Employment changes during formal and informal business cycles -- 3.1 Formal- and informal-economy business cycles -- 3.2 Correlations of informal output with formal output -- 3.3 Co-movement between formal and informal business cycles -- 3.4 Coincidence of formal and informal business cycles -- 3.5 Probability of a recession -- 3.6 Impact of formal output fluctuations on the informal sector -- 3C.1 Impact of formal output fluctuations on the informal sector: Alternative instrumental variables -- 3C.2 Impact of formal output fluctuations on the informal sector: Additional robustness checks -- 3C.3 Correlations of informal output with formal output: Shares of informal output and employment -- 3C.4 Impact of formal output fluctuations on shares of output and employment in the informal sector -- 4.1 Development challenges and informality -- B4.1.1 EMDEs: Estimates of informal-formal wage gaps -- 4.2 Features of informal firms and workers -- B4.2.1 Labor productivity in informal firms -- B4.2.2 Formal firms facing informal competition -- B4.2.3 Labor productivity differential of formal firms with and without informal competition -- 4.3 Access to finance and public services -- 4.4 Access to social benefits -- B4.3.1 Informality and poverty and income inequality -- 4.5 Informality and economic correlates -- 4.6 Informality, fiscal indicators, and institutional quality -- 4.7 Informality and SDGs related to human development -- 4.8 Informality and SDGs related to infrastructure -- 4.9 Results from Bayesian model averaging approach -- 5.1 Evolution of informality in advanced economies and EMDEs -- 5.2 Informality in EMDE regions -- 5.3 Correlates of informality in EMDE regions -- 5.4 Informality in East Asia and Pacific -- 5.5 Correlates of informality in East Asia and Pacific.5.6 Informality in Europe and Central Asia -- 5.7 Correlates of informality in Europe and Central Asia -- 5.8 Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean -- 5.9 Correlates of informality in Latin America and the Caribbean -- 5.10 Informality in the Middle East and North Africa -- 5.11 Correlates of informality in the Middle East and North Africa -- 5.12 Informality in South Asia -- 5.13 Correlates of informality in South Asia -- 5.14 Informality in Sub-Saharan Africa -- 5.15 Correlates of informality in Sub-Saharan Africa -- 5.16 Informality indicators and entrepreneurial conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa -- 6.1 Policies to address challenges of informality in EMDEs -- B6.1.1 Financial development and informality in EMDEs -- B6.1.2 Evolution of financial development in EMDEs -- B6.1.3 Evolution of output informality following financial development in EMDEs -- 6.2 Tax rates and informality in EMDEs -- 6.3 Firms' tax compliance burdens and informality in EMDEs -- 6.4 Tax morale and informality in EMDEs -- 6.5 Government services in EMDEs, 2000-18 -- 6.6 Informality after improvements in government services -- 6.7 Labor market reforms and informality in EMDEs -- 6.8 Informality after labor market reforms in EMDEs -- 6.9 Firm start-up cost and informality in EMDEs -- 6.10 Governance and informality in EMDEs -- 6.11 Education and informality in EMDEs -- 6.12 Access to finance and informality in EMDEs -- 6A.1 Robustness checks: Evolution of informal output levels following financial development in EMDEs -- Tables -- 2B.1A Summary statistics -- 2B.1B Summary statistics by country groupings -- 2B.2 Spearman rank correlations (across countries within individual years) -- 2B.3 Coincidence of signs of first-differences -- 2B.4 Volatility of formal and informal economies -- 2B.5A Cyclical features of recessions in formal and informal economies.2B.5B Cyclical features of recoveries in formal and informal economies -- 2B.6A Informal employment during formal and informal business cycles -- 2B.6B Formal and total employment during formal business cycles -- 2B.7 Summary of data coverage -- 2B.8 MIMIC model estimation results, 1993-2018 -- 2B.9 World Values Survey -- 3C.1 IV-2SLS regression: Baseline results -- 4D.1 Data: Meta-regression analysis -- 4D.2 Regression: Meta-regression analysis -- 4D.3 Labor productivity differential between types of firms -- 4D.4 Regression: Labor productivity of formal and informal firms -- 4D.5 Regression: Labor productivity of formal firms facing informal competition -- 4D.6 Regression: Informality, poverty, and income inequality -- 4D.7 Regression: Changes in informality and poverty reduction -- 4D.8 Regression: Changes in informality and improvement in income inequality -- 4D.9 Data: Bayesian model averaging approach -- 4D.10 PIP and posterior means (output informality) -- 4D.11 PIP and posterior means (employment informality) -- 4D.12 Correlates of employment informality in EMDEs -- 4D.13 Correlates of informality in EMDEs: MIMIC-based informal activity and WEF index -- 4D.14 Regression: Developmental challenges and DGE-based output informality in EMDEs -- 4D.15 Regression: Developmental challenges and self-employment in EMDEs -- 6B.1 A summary of empirical studies on financial development and informality -- 6B.2 Data sources of variables used in annex 6A -- 6B.3 Policy indicators and employment informality -- 6B.4 Regression results from local-projection models: DGE-based informal output in percent of GDP -- 6B.5 Regression results from local-projection models: Self-employment in percent of total employment -- 6B.6 Robustness checks: OLS and quantile regressions between policy measures and DGE-based output informality.6B.7 Robustness checks: OLS and quantile regressions between policy measures and employment informality.A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.Economic developmentInformal sector (Economics)Economic development.Informal sector (Economics)338.9Ohnsorge Franziska1602868Yu Shu1021277MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910806966603321The Long Shadow of Informality3945945UNINA