05560oam 22007095 450 991078948800332120200520144314.01-283-49184-297866134918480-8213-8954-810.1596/978-0-8213-8981-2(CKB)3460000000023799(EBL)868315(OCoLC)778459780(SSID)ssj0000661566(PQKBManifestationID)12241530(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000661566(PQKBWorkID)10711435(PQKB)11770039(MiAaPQ)EBC868315(Au-PeEL)EBL868315(CaPaEBR)ebr10530608(CaONFJC)MIL349184(The World Bank)2011048299(US-djbf)17070785(EXLCZ)99346000000002379920111205d2011 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierKnowing, when you don't know : using microsimulation models to assess the poverty and distributional impacts of macroeconomic shocks /edited by Ambar Narayan, Carolina Sanchez-PeramoWashington, D.C. :World Bank,c2011.pages cmWorld Bank studiesDescription based upon print version of record.0-8213-8981-5 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; List of Contributors; Acknowledgments; Foreword; 1. Assessing the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of the Financial Crisis with Microsimulations: An Overview of Country Studies; Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Poverty; Evaluating the Impact of the Crisis; The Methodology to Estimate Impacts Ex Ante; How the Approach Works; Defining the "Impact": Two Types of Countries; Simulating the Impact of Policy Changes; Caveats to the Approach; Results from Micro-Macro Simulations for Four Countries; Results for Type I Countries; Results for Type II CountriesSimulating the Impact of Policy ResponsesConclusion; 2. On Economy-Wide Shocks, Models and Politics; When Are Second-Round and Systemic Effects a First-Order Concern?; Implications; When Can Information Affect Government Behavior?; Conclusion and a Note on the World Bank; 3. The Distributional Consequences of the Economic and Financial Crisis of 2008-09: A Comment; Backdrop to the Issue of Distributional Consequences; Thinking about the Problem; The Guts of the U.S. Story; Some Basic Generalizations; The Current Crisis in Perspective; Results of Quick Post Crisis SurveysTakeaway Observations of Relevance for Policy4. Stress Testing for the Poverty Impacts of the Next Crisis; Introduction; The Need for a Social Protection Assessment Program (SPAP); An Overview of the Workshop Papers and Presentations; An Assessment, and What's Missing; Conclusion; References; Figures; Figure 1.1: Scheme of the modeling process; Figure 1.2: Impacts in Type I and Type II countries; Figure 1.3: Percent change in sectoral employment between benchmark and crisis (2010); Figure 1.4: Percent change in household income between benchmark and crisis scenarios (2010)Figure 1.5: Percent change in poverty/inequality indicators between crisis and benchmarkFigure 1.6: Percent losses in income for the general population (left) and the crisis-vulnerable (right); Figure 1.7: Percentage of poor and crisis-vulnerable households in rural areas; Figure 1.8: Percentage of households with low-skilled heads; Figure 1.9: Growth incidence curves: percent change in income (relative to the benchmark) due to crisis; Figure 1.10: Transitions across deciles of per capita income (percent of households in each decile)Figure 1.11: Macroeconomic projections for Mexico (2008-09 are actual observations 2010-11 are forecasts); Figure 1.12: Growth incidence curve for Mexico (2008-09); Figure 1.13: Transitions across deciles in Mexico; Figure 1.14: Growth incidence curves for Mexico (2010-11); Figure 1.15: Transitions across deciles for the period 2010-11; Figure 2.1: The welfare impact of food price changes in the 1997 Indonesian crisis across households; Figure 2.2: The pattern of change in deposits, by size and ownership of deposits, in the lead up to the Argentine financial crisisFigure 3.1: The top percentile (1%) of U.S. income (incomes above US368,000 in 2008)Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks willaffect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easilyavailable when crises strike. But policy action requires not onlyunderstanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifyingwhich households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) thecrisis.A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shockfrom the historical response of income or consumption poverty tochanges in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty togrowth. Although this method provides an estimate for the aggWorld Bank e-Library.DepressionsPovertyEconomicsDepressions.Poverty.Economics.339.4/6015195Narayan Ambar1465791Sánchez-Páramo Carolina1465792DLCDLCBOOK9910789488003321Knowing, when you don't know3676000UNINA