05037oam 22011774 450 991078870110332120230828235901.01-4623-8210-X1-4519-9138-X1-283-51703-597866138294811-4519-0863-6(CKB)3360000000443874(EBL)3014478(SSID)ssj0000943021(PQKBManifestationID)11593656(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943021(PQKBWorkID)10975307(PQKB)10896271(OCoLC)694141153(MiAaPQ)EBC3014478(IMF)WPIEE2006067(EXLCZ)99336000000044387420020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrPrimary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries : A "Fan-Chart" Approach /Oya Celasun, Xavier Debrun, Jonathan OstryWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (54 p.)IMF Working Papers"March 2006."1-4518-6327-6 Includes bibliographical references.""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND RISK""; ""III. DEBT DYNAMICS AND THE CONDUCT OF FISCAL POLICY""; ""IV. RISKS TO DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN FIVE EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES""; ""V. CONCLUSION""; ""Appendix""; ""REFERENCES""This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/067Debts, PublicEconometric modelsFiscal policyEconometric modelsExports and ImportsimfMacroeconomicsimfPublic FinanceimfProduction and Operations ManagementimfNational Deficit SurplusimfDebtimfDebt ManagementimfSovereign DebtimfSimulation MethodsimfFiscal PolicyimfInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfPublic finance & taxationimfInternational economicsimfPublic debtimfFiscal policyimfFiscal stanceimfDebt sustainability analysisimfOutput gapimfExternal debtimfProductionimfDebts, PublicimfDebts, ExternalimfEconomic theoryimfTurkeyimfDebts, PublicEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Exports and ImportsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceProduction and Operations ManagementNational Deficit SurplusDebtDebt ManagementSovereign DebtSimulation MethodsFiscal PolicyInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsMacroeconomics: ProductionPublic finance & taxationInternational economicsPublic debtFiscal policyFiscal stanceDebt sustainability analysisOutput gapExternal debtProductionDebts, PublicDebts, ExternalEconomic theoryCelasun Oya1462106Debrun Xavier1464155Ostry Jonathan1436213International Monetary Fund.Research and Fiscal Affairs Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788701103321Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries3673719UNINA