05410nam 2200613 450 991013217700332120230803203510.01-118-91476-71-118-91475-9(CKB)3710000000167682(EBL)1729556(OCoLC)884587620(MiAaPQ)EBC1729556(Au-PeEL)EBL1729556(CaPaEBR)ebr10891186(EXLCZ)99371000000016768220140717h20142014 uy 0engur|n|---|||||rdacontentrdamediardacarrierBayesian networks for probabilistic inference and decision analysis in forensic science /Franco Taroni [and four others]2nd ed.Chichester, England :Wiley,2014.©20141 online resource (473 p.)Statistics in PracticeDescription based upon print version of record.0-470-97973-9 Includes bibliographical references and indexes.Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Foreword; Preface to the second edition; Preface to the first edition; Chapter 1 The logic of decision; 1.1 Uncertainty and probability; 1.1.1 Probability is not about numbers, it is about coherent reasoning under uncertainty; 1.1.2 The first two laws of probability; 1.1.3 Relevance and independence; 1.1.4 The third law of probability; 1.1.5 Extension of the conversation; 1.1.6 Bayes' theorem; 1.1.7 Probability trees; 1.1.8 Likelihood and probability; 1.1.9 The calculus of (probable) truths; 1.2 Reasoning under uncertainty1.2.1 The Hound of the Baskervilles1.2.2 Combination of background information and evidence; 1.2.3 The odds form of Bayes' theorem; 1.2.4 Combination of evidence; 1.2.5 Reasoning with total evidence; 1.2.6 Reasoning with uncertain evidence; 1.3 Population proportions, probabilities and induction; 1.3.1 The statistical syllogism; 1.3.2 Expectations and population proportions; 1.3.3 Probabilistic explanations; 1.3.4 Abduction and inference to the best explanation; 1.3.5 Induction the Bayesian way; 1.4 Decision making under uncertainty; 1.4.1 Bookmakers in the Courtrooms?; 1.4.2 Utility theory1.4.3 The rule of maximizing expected utility1.4.4 The loss function; 1.4.5 Decision trees; 1.4.6 The expected value of information; 1.5 Further readings; Chapter 2 The logic of Bayesian networks and influence diagrams; 2.1 Reasoning with graphical models; 2.1.1 Beyond detective stories; 2.1.2 Bayesian networks; 2.1.3 A graphical model for relevance; 2.1.4 Conditional independence; 2.1.5 Graphical models for conditional independence: d-separation; 2.1.6 A decision rule for conditional independence; 2.1.7 Networks for evidential reasoning; 2.1.8 The Markov property; 2.1.9 Influence diagrams2.1.10 Conditional independence in influence diagrams2.1.11 Relevance and causality; 2.1.12 The Hound of the Baskervilles revisited; 2.2 Reasoning with Bayesian networks and influence diagrams; 2.2.1 Divide and conquer; 2.2.2 From directed to triangulated graphs; 2.2.3 From triangulated graphs to junction trees; 2.2.4 Solving influence diagrams; 2.2.5 Object-oriented Bayesian networks; 2.2.6 Solving object-oriented Bayesian networks; 2.3 Further readings; 2.3.1 General; 2.3.2 Bayesian networks and their predecessors in judicial contextsChapter 3 Evaluation of scientific findings in forensic science3.1 Introduction; 3.2 The value of scientific findings; 3.3 Principles of forensic evaluation and relevant propositions; 3.3.1 Source level propositions; 3.3.1.1 Notation; 3.3.1.2 Single stain; 3.3.2 Activity level propositions; 3.3.2.1 Notation and formulaic development; 3.3.3 Crime level propositions; 3.3.3.1 Notation; 3.3.3.2 Association propositions; 3.3.3.3 Intermediate association propositions; 3.4 Pre-assessment of the case; 3.5 Evaluation using graphical models; 3.5.1 Introduction3.5.2 General aspects of the construction of Bayesian networks ""This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation""Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability tStatistics in practice.Bayesian statistical decision theoryGraphic methodsUncertainty (Information theory)Graphic methodsForensic sciencesGraphic methodsBayesian statistical decision theoryGraphic methods.Uncertainty (Information theory)Graphic methods.Forensic sciencesGraphic methods.363.2501/519542Taroni FrancoMiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910132177003321Bayesian networks for probabilistic inference and decision analysis in forensic science2034116UNINA04156oam 22010814 450 991078869890332120230828235752.01-4623-3466-01-4527-9958-X1-283-51648-997866138289341-4519-8905-9(CKB)3360000000443820(EBL)3014372(SSID)ssj0000940817(PQKBManifestationID)11967052(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940817(PQKBWorkID)10955894(PQKB)11365015(OCoLC)712989256(MiAaPQ)EBC3014372(IMF)WPIEE2006184(EXLCZ)99336000000044382020020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrFiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies : How Does Debt Matter? /Garima Vasishtha, Taimur Baig, Manmohan Kumar, Edda ZoliWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (43 p.)IMF Working Papers"August 2006".1-4518-6444-2 Includes bibliographical references.""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL-MONETARY NEXUS: ANALYTICAL AND EMPIRICAL STUDIES""; ""III. CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS""; ""IV. NEWS ANALYSIS""; ""V. CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""APPENDIXES""This paper examines two main aspects of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in emerging market economies. First, it explores the interest rate-inflation relationship in economies with different levels of external and domestic public debt using panel- and crosssection data. The results show that interest rate-inflation elasticity weakens with debt/GDP and external debt/GDP. Second, it utilizes high-frequency data from Brazil, Turkey, and Poland to examine how market-determined variables react to economic news. The results suggest that when vulnerabilities are high, budget news has the most significant impact on country spreads and interest rates, and the impact of monetary policy is weakened.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/184Debts, PublicFiscal policyBanks and BankingimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfPublic FinanceimfFiscal PolicyimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfDebtimfDebt ManagementimfSovereign DebtimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfFinanceimfPublic finance & taxationimfFiscal policyimfExchange ratesimfFiscal stanceimfLong term interest ratesimfPublic debtimfInterest ratesimfDebts, PublicimfUnited StatesimfDebts, Public.Fiscal policy.Banks and BankingForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceFiscal PolicyInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsDebtDebt ManagementSovereign DebtCurrencyForeign exchangeFinancePublic finance & taxationFiscal policyExchange ratesFiscal stanceLong term interest ratesPublic debtInterest ratesDebts, PublicVasishtha Garima1464132Baig Taimur1464133Kumar Manmohan1464134Zoli Edda1111469DcWaIMFBOOK9910788698903321Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies3673697UNINA01932oam 2200541zu 450 991037648890332120210807002012.0(CKB)3170000000002603(SSID)ssj0001138963(PQKBManifestationID)11617355(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001138963(PQKBWorkID)11170840(PQKB)10982432(WaSeSS)IndRDA00015489(Association for Computing Machinery)10.1145/1185448(EXLCZ)99317000000000260320160829d2006 uy engur|||||||||||txtccr44th ACM Southeast Conference : Melbourne, Florida, USA, March 10-12, 2006[Place of publication not identified]ACM20061 online resource (823 pages)ACM Other conferencesBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph1-59593-315-8 ACM Other conferences44th Association for Computing Machinery Southeast Conference :Melbourne, Florida, United States of America, March 10-12, 2006Proceedings of the 44th annual Southeast Regional ConferenceACM SE '06ACM Southeast Regional Conference, Melbourne, FL, USA - March 10 - 12, 2006EducationHILCCSocial SciencesHILCCTheory & Practice of EducationHILCCEducationSocial SciencesTheory & Practice of EducationMenezes Ronaldo871383Ribeiro EraldoMenezes RonaldoAssociation for Computing Machinery-Digital Library.PQKBBOOK991037648890332144th ACM Southeast Conference : Melbourne, Florida, USA, March 10-12, 20062084311UNINA