05510oam 22013454 450 991078852430332120230829002125.01-4623-9017-X1-4527-9858-31-282-44802-197866138212181-4519-0845-8(CKB)3360000000443160(EBL)3014515(SSID)ssj0000940091(PQKBManifestationID)11600620(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940091(PQKBWorkID)10946532(PQKB)10101241(OCoLC)694141211(MiAaPQ)EBC3014515(IMF)WPIEE2006049(EXLCZ)99336000000044316020020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrCommon Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles /Allan Timmermann, Luis Catão, Marco AiolfiWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (64 p.)IMF Working Papers"February 2006."1-4518-6309-8 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. INTRODUCTION; II. ECONOMETRIC FRAMEWORK; III. NEW BUSINESS CYCLE INDICES FOR LATIN AMERICA; IV. STYLIZED BUSINESS CYCLE FACTS; V. CONCLUSIONS; REFERENCESThis paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/049Business cyclesLatin AmericaEconometric modelsBusiness forescastingLatin AmericaEconometricsimfExports and ImportsimfMacroeconomicsimfPublic FinanceimfBusiness FluctuationsimfCyclesimfEconomic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary EconomicsimfGrowth and Fluctuations: General, International, or ComparativeimfPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfClassification MethodsimfCluster AnalysisimfPrincipal ComponentsimfFactor ModelsimfEmpirical Studies of TradeimfNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralimfEconomic growthimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfInternational economicsimfPublic finance & taxationimfBusiness cyclesimfFactor modelsimfTerms of tradeimfEconomic recessionimfExpenditureimfEconometric analysisimfInternational tradeimfEconometric modelsimfEconomic policyimfnternational cooperationimfRecessionsimfExpenditures, PublicimfMexicoimfBusiness cyclesEconometric models.Business forescastingEconometricsExports and ImportsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceBusiness FluctuationsCyclesEconomic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary EconomicsGrowth and Fluctuations: General, International, or ComparativePrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)Classification MethodsCluster AnalysisPrincipal ComponentsFactor ModelsEmpirical Studies of TradeNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralEconomic growthEconometrics & economic statisticsInternational economicsPublic finance & taxationBusiness cyclesFactor modelsTerms of tradeEconomic recessionExpenditureEconometric analysisInternational tradeEconometric modelsEconomic policynternational cooperationRecessionsExpenditures, PublicTimmermann Allan1462123Catão Luis1462122Aiolfi Marco1462124International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788524303321Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles3670964UNINA