05262oam 22013454 450 991078840400332120230828235818.01-4623-3064-91-4527-0172-51-283-51757-497866138300291-4519-0837-7(CKB)3360000000443928(EBL)3014395(SSID)ssj0000940842(PQKBManifestationID)11545386(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940842(PQKBWorkID)10955968(PQKB)10296634(OCoLC)698585661(MiAaPQ)EBC3014395(IMF)WPIEE2006041(EXLCZ)99336000000044392820020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrForecasting ECB Monetary Policy : Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography /Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Helge BergerWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (42 p.)IMF Working Papers"February 2006".1-4518-6301-2 Includes bibliographical references.""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. DATA AND SOME STYLIZED FACTS""; ""III. THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY, MACRO CONDITIONS, AND HISTORY""; ""IV. DECOMPOSITION OF THE FORECASTING ERRORS""; ""V. CONCLUSIONS""; ""References""Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/041Monetary policyEuropean Union countriesBanks and BankingimfInflationimfIndustries: GeneralimfLaborimfMonetary PolicyimfCentral Banks and Their PoliciesimfInformation and Market EfficiencyimfEvent StudiesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfBanksimfDepository InstitutionsimfMicro Finance InstitutionsimfMortgagesimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job SearchimfBankingimfMacroeconomicsimfLabourimfincome economicsimfCentral bank policy rateimfCentral bank autonomyimfIndustrial productionimfFinancial servicesimfCentral banksimfPricesimfProductionimfUnemploymentimfInterest ratesimfBanks and bankingimfIndustriesimfEuropean Union countriesEconomic policyUnited KingdomimfMonetary policyBanks and BankingInflationIndustries: GeneralLaborMonetary PolicyCentral Banks and Their PoliciesInformation and Market EfficiencyEvent StudiesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsPrice LevelDeflationBanksDepository InstitutionsMicro Finance InstitutionsMortgagesMacroeconomics: ProductionUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job SearchBankingMacroeconomicsLabourincome economicsCentral bank policy rateCentral bank autonomyIndustrial productionFinancial servicesCentral banksPricesProductionUnemploymentInterest ratesBanks and bankingIndustriesEhrmann Michael146600Fratzscher Marcel1574014Berger Helge1462107DcWaIMFBOOK9910788404003321Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy3850011UNINA