04962oam 22010334 450 991078840320332120230721033334.01-4623-2557-21-4527-5719-41-283-51495-897866138274011-4519-1022-3(CKB)3360000000443668(EBL)1608469(SSID)ssj0000948699(PQKBManifestationID)11602671(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948699(PQKBWorkID)10950171(PQKB)11651066(OCoLC)535146981(MiAaPQ)EBC1608469(IMF)WPIEE2007005(EXLCZ)99336000000044366820020129d2007 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrYemen : Exchange Rate Policy in the Face of Dwindling Oil Exports /Todd Schneider, Nabil Ben Ltaifa, Faisal Ahmed, Saade ChamiWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2007.1 online resource (24 p.)IMF Working Papers"January 2007."1-4518-6569-4 Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-22).Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background and Macroeconomic Outlook; Figures; 1. Exchange Rate and Inflation Developments, January 1998-June 2006; III. Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate; 2. Yemen and GCC Countries, Real Effective Exchange Rates, January 1995-June 2006; IV. Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Yemen; A. Data and variables; 3. Real Effective Exchange Rate and its Key Determinants; B. Methodology; C. Econometric Results; Tables; 1. Selected Results of the VEC; D. Equilibrium (long-run) Relationship; E. Impact of Declining Oil Production on the REERF. Impact on the Nominal Exchange Rate: An Illustrative ExerciseV. Exchange Rate Regime Options; 4. Yemeni Rial-Daily Exchange Rate Versus U.S. Dollar, January-August 2006; VI. Conclusions; Appendix; 1. Variables; ReferencesThis paper investigates the likely implications of declining oil production on Yemen's equilibrium exchange rate, and discusses policy options to ensure a smooth transition to a nonoil economy. The empirical results suggest that, as oil production and foreign exchange earnings fall, the Yemeni rial will have to adjust downward in real effective terms to keep pace with the equilibrium exchange rate. In light of strong pass-through from exchange rate depreciation to domestic inflation, this could entail a substantial depreciation in nominal terms. Given the nature of the adjustment, a floating exchange rate regime appears to be the best option, if supported by appropriate macroeconomic policies. However, given public fixation on a exchange rate stability, a softly managed float would be a better option for Yemen whereby the central bank may have to lead the market toward the equilibrium exchange rate.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2007/005Foreign exchange ratesYemen (Republic)Petroleum industry and tradeYemen (Republic)ExportsYemen (Republic)Foreign ExchangeimfIndustries: EnergyimfMonetary PolicyimfCentral Banks and Their PoliciesimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfPetroleum, oil & gas industriesimfReal exchange ratesimfExchange ratesimfReal effective exchange ratesimfOil productionimfExchange rate arrangementsimfProductionimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfYemen, Republic ofimfForeign exchange ratesPetroleum industry and tradeExportsForeign ExchangeIndustries: EnergyMonetary PolicyCentral Banks and Their PoliciesMacroeconomics: ProductionCurrencyForeign exchangePetroleum, oil & gas industriesReal exchange ratesExchange ratesReal effective exchange ratesOil productionExchange rate arrangementsProductionPetroleum industry and trade339.4339.43Schneider Todd1574009Ben Ltaifa Nabil1574010Ahmed Faisal1574011Chami Saade1574012International Monetary Fund.Middle East and Central Asia Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788403203321Yemen3850003UNINA