04953oam 22010574 450 991078840300332120230828235712.01-4623-9421-31-4527-1887-31-283-51486-91-4519-0855-59786613827319(CKB)3360000000443659(EBL)3014480(SSID)ssj0000940046(PQKBManifestationID)11479993(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940046(PQKBWorkID)10948362(PQKB)10908861(OCoLC)694141156(MiAaPQ)EBC3014480(IMF)WPIEE2006059(EXLCZ)99336000000044365920020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrAn Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts /Allan TimmermannWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (108 p.)IMF Working Papers"March 2006."1-4518-6319-5 Includes bibliographical references.""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References""The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/059Economic developmentEconomic forecastingEvaluationInternational economic relationsExports and ImportsimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfForecastingimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfForecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfInternational economicsimfEconomic ForecastingimfCurrent account balanceimfCurrent accountimfGDP forecastingimfEconomic forecastingimfBalance of paymentsimfNational incomeimfPricesimfUnited StatesimfEconomic development.Economic forecastingEvaluation.International economic relations.Exports and ImportsInflationMacroeconomicsForecastingCurrent Account AdjustmentShort-term Capital MovementsForecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsPrice LevelDeflationForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsInternational economicsEconomic ForecastingCurrent account balanceCurrent accountGDP forecastingEconomic forecastingBalance of paymentsNational incomePricesTimmermann Allan1462123International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788403003321An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts3850001UNINA