05985oam 22012374 450 991078834260332120230721045643.01-4623-9110-91-4527-1476-21-4518-7110-41-282-84203-X9786612842030(CKB)3170000000055146(EBL)1608071(SSID)ssj0001489052(PQKBManifestationID)11801875(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001489052(PQKBWorkID)11452303(PQKB)10435507(OCoLC)460637380(MiAaPQ)EBC1608071(IMF)WPIEE2008252(EXLCZ)99317000000005514620020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrWriting Clearly : ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication /Martin Cihak, Katerina Smídková, Ales BulirWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (36 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/252Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1563-2 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Motivation and Literature Overview; A. Communicating Clearly; B. Literature on Monetary Policy Communication; III. Methodology and Data; A. Methodology ("Central Bank Watching for Dummies"); Tables; 1. Slope Coefficient in a Regression of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; Figures; 1. Correlation of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; 2. GARCH Estimate of the Policy Rule for the ECB; 3. Parameterization Overview; B. Data; 2. Euro Area: Actual Inflation, Inflation Targets, and Inflation Expectations4. Inflation Factors and Their Serial Correlation5. Comparison with the KOF MPC Index; C. ECB Watching; 3. ECB Bulletins: Inflation Factors; 4. ECB: Central Bank Watching; IV. Results; A. Press Statements Only; B. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions; 5. Press Statements Only; C. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions and Forecast Risk Assessment; 6. ECB Bulletin, Shock Description, but No Forecast Risk Assessment; D. Monthly Bulletins: Adding Monetary Pillar Information; 7. ECB Bulletin, All Shocks; E. Summary Discussion: When Could the Public Get Confused?; 8. Monetary Pillar9. Confusing Communication: Robustness ChecksF. Comparison with Other Studies; V. Conclusions; ReferencesThe paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/252Banks and banking, CentralEuropeEconometric modelsCommunicationEuropeEconometric modelsMonetary policyEuropeEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfInflationimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfPublic FinanceimfForecastingimfTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: GeneralimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfMonetary PolicyimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfPublic finance & taxationimfMacroeconomicsimfMonetary economicsimfEconomic ForecastingimfBankingimfCommunications in revenue administrationimfInflation targetingimfEconomic forecastingimfCentral bank policy rateimfRevenueimfPricesimfMonetary policyimfInterest ratesimfCzech RepublicimfBanks and banking, CentralEconometric models.CommunicationEconometric models.Monetary policyEconometric models.Banks and BankingInflationMoney and Monetary PolicyPublic FinanceForecastingTaxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: GeneralPrice LevelDeflationMonetary PolicyForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsPublic finance & taxationMacroeconomicsMonetary economicsEconomic ForecastingBankingCommunications in revenue administrationInflation targetingEconomic forecastingCentral bank policy rateRevenuePricesMonetary policyInterest rates332.11094Cihak Martin1106217Smídková Katerina862709Bulir Ales862712DcWaIMFBOOK9910788342603321Writing Clearly3716477UNINA