06047oam 22013454 450 991078833990332120230721045631.01-4623-4064-41-4527-2081-91-4518-7204-61-282-84278-19786612842788(CKB)3170000000055214(EBL)1608204(SSID)ssj0000941838(PQKBManifestationID)11585689(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941838(PQKBWorkID)10964046(PQKB)10096703(OCoLC)649716104(MiAaPQ)EBC1608204(IMF)WPIEE2009057(EXLCZ)99317000000005521420020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrIrrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market : Were Evangelicals Left Behind? /Christopher CroweWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (32 p.)IMF Working Papers"March 2009".1-4519-1639-6 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. House Price Volatility and Evangelical Population; 2. Average House Price Growth; II. Evangelicals and House Price Volatility; A. Empirical Specification and Results; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; B. Discussion; 2. Regression Results; III. 9/11 Event Study; IV. Panel Study; A. Model and Predictions; 3. Quarterly House Price Growth and Share of Evangelicals; 4. The Rapture Index and Subcategories; B. Data and Empirical Strategy; 5. The Rapture Index; C. Results and Discussion; 3. Descriptive Statistics; 4. Regression ResultsV. End Times Beliefs and Asset Holdings5. Counterfactual Exercise; 6. Regression Results; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendix I. Data Descriptions and SourcesThe recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/057HousingPricesUnited StatesEvangelicalismEconomicsReligious aspectsChristianityFinancial Risk ManagementimfInfrastructureimfInsuranceimfReal EstateimfDemographyimfMacroeconomics: ConsumptionimfSavingimfWealthimfUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing DemandimfCultural Economics: ReligionimfHousing Supply and MarketsimfDemographic Economics: GeneralimfEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisimfHousingimfFinancial CrisesimfInsurance CompaniesimfActuarial StudiesimfProperty & real estateimfPopulation & demographyimfMacroeconomicsimfEconomic & financial crises & disastersimfInsurance & actuarial studiesimfHousing pricesimfPopulation and demographicsimfAsset bubblesimfPricesimfNational accountsimfFinancial crisesimfFinancial institutionsimfPopulationimfSaving and investmentimfUnited StatesimfHousingPricesEvangelicalism.EconomicsReligious aspectsChristianity.Financial Risk ManagementInfrastructureInsuranceReal EstateDemographyMacroeconomics: ConsumptionSavingWealthUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing DemandCultural Economics: ReligionHousing Supply and MarketsDemographic Economics: GeneralEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisHousingFinancial CrisesInsurance CompaniesActuarial StudiesProperty & real estatePopulation & demographyMacroeconomicsEconomic & financial crises & disastersInsurance & actuarial studiesHousing pricesPopulation and demographicsAsset bubblesPricesNational accountsFinancial crisesFinancial institutionsPopulationSaving and investmentCrowe Christopher868737DcWaIMFBOOK9910788339903321Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market3716450UNINA