05697oam 22012134 450 991078833820332120230721045628.01-4623-1642-51-4527-3796-797866128429241-4518-7218-61-282-84292-7(CKB)3170000000055232(EBL)1608233(SSID)ssj0000940139(PQKBManifestationID)11518060(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940139(PQKBWorkID)10946365(PQKB)10406129(OCoLC)608485810(MiAaPQ)EBC1608233(IMF)WPIEE2009071(EXLCZ)99317000000005523220020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrECCU Business Cycles : Impact of the U.S. /Yan Sun, Wendell SamuelWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (25 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4519-1653-1 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Business Cycles and Spillovers; A. Analysis of Business Cycles in the Caribbean; B. Common Trend and Cycle Analysis; C. Transmission of U.S. Shocks to the Caribbean; III. Econometric Methodology and Data; A. The Common Trends and Common Cycles Approach; B. The VAR Analysis; C. The Data; IV. Empirical Results; Tables; 1. Summary Statistics of Real GDP Growth; A. Caribbean Common Trends and Common Cycles; 2. VAR Lag Order Selection; 3. Tests for the Number of Cointegrating Vectors; 4. Growth Elasticities in the Caribbean; B. Spillovers from the U.S. to the ECCU5. Diagnostics of Growth Elasticity ModelsV. Conclusions and Policy Implications; Figures; 1. Three Common Cycles; 2. Four Common Trends; 3. Caribbean Countries: Cyclical Components of Real GDP; 4. Caribbean Countries: Trend Components of Real GDP; 5. ECCU: Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; 6. ECCU: Country Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; 7. Antigua and Barbuda: Responses to One Percent U.S. Growth Shock; ReferencesWith a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/071Business cyclesUnited StatesEconomicsUnited StatesEconometricsimfExports and ImportsimfMacroeconomicsimfBusiness FluctuationsimfCyclesimfEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesimfPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfTime-Series ModelsimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfExternalitiesimfCommodity MarketsimfRemittancesimfEconomic growthimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfInternational economicsimfBusiness cyclesimfVector autoregressionimfSpilloversimfCommodity pricesimfEconometric analysisimfFinancial sector policy and analysisimfPricesimfBalance of paymentsimfInternational financeimfUnited StatesimfBusiness cyclesEconomicsEconometricsExports and ImportsMacroeconomicsBusiness FluctuationsCyclesEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)Time-Series ModelsDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsDiffusion ProcessesExternalitiesCommodity MarketsRemittancesEconomic growthEconometrics & economic statisticsInternational economicsBusiness cyclesVector autoregressionSpilloversCommodity pricesEconometric analysisFinancial sector policy and analysisPricesBalance of paymentsInternational financeSun Yan690256Samuel Wendell1472704DcWaIMFBOOK9910788338203321ECCU Business Cycles3685587UNINA