05365oam 22010934 450 991078833720332120230721045626.01-4623-2248-41-4527-4301-097866128429481-282-84294-31-4518-7220-8(CKB)3170000000055242(EBL)1608243(SSID)ssj0000939969(PQKBManifestationID)11518975(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939969(PQKBWorkID)10938239(PQKB)11717970(OCoLC)608491617(MiAaPQ)EBC1608243(IMF)WPIEE2009073(EXLCZ)99317000000005524220020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrA Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle /Abdullah Al-HassanWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (36 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4519-1655-8 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. Generalized Dynamic Factor Model; B. Estimating Common Components by a One-Sided Filter; Figures; 1. Average Dynamic Eigenvalues Over Cross-Sectional Units; 2. Percentage of Variance Explained; III. Building a GCC Area Database; IV. A Coincident Indicator for the GCC Business Cycle; A. Definition of the Coincident Indicator Properties; 3. Spectral Density Functions of All Eigenvalues; 4. Average of Spectral Density Functions; B. Properties of the Coincident Indicator; C. The Construction of a Coincident Indicator5. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the GCC Area GDP Growth Rate6. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; 7. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; V. Degree of Commonality and Cyclical Behavior of the Variables; A. Degree of Commonality; B. Business Cycle: Stylized Facts; Tables; 1. The Direction and Timing of Variables Against the Coincident Indicator; VI. Observed Economic Variables and Latent Factors; VII. Conclusion; 2. Testing the Observed Macroeconomic Data Against the Latent Factors; Appendix; I: Data Set; Appendix Tables1: Data, Degree of Commonality, and Cyclical BehaviorReferencesThis paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together. Since the indicator is constructed using a small number of common factors, the strong correlation between the indicator and real GDP growth points to a high degree of commonality across GCC economies. The timing and direction of movements in macroeconomic variables are characterized with respect to the coincident indicator. Finally, to obtain a meaningful economic interpretation of the latent factors, their behavior is compared to the observed economic variables.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/073Business cyclesEconometricsimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfPrice LevelimfInflationimfDeflationimfClassification MethodsimfCluster AnalysisimfPrincipal ComponentsimfFactor ModelsimfEconomic growthimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfBusiness cyclesimfCyclical indicatorsimfConsumer pricesimfFactor modelsimfNominal effective exchange rateimfPricesimfEconometric modelsimfUnited StatesimfBusiness cycles.EconometricsForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsPrices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)Price LevelInflationDeflationClassification MethodsCluster AnalysisPrincipal ComponentsFactor ModelsEconomic growthEconometrics & economic statisticsCurrencyForeign exchangeBusiness cyclesCyclical indicatorsConsumer pricesFactor modelsNominal effective exchange ratePricesEconometric modelsAl-Hassan Abdullah1472712DcWaIMFBOOK9910788337203321A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle3685577UNINA