05156oam 22010574 450 991078833630332120230721045706.01-4623-3357-51-4527-5410-11-4518-7232-11-282-84305-29786612843051(CKB)3170000000055253(EBL)1608268(SSID)ssj0000940035(PQKBManifestationID)11600614(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940035(PQKBWorkID)10939165(PQKB)10828136(OCoLC)503178964(MiAaPQ)EBC1608268(IMF)WPIEE2009085(EXLCZ)99317000000005525320020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrAdding Latin America to the Global Projection ModelWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (50 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4519-1667-1 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Benchmark Model; A. Background; B. The Specification of the Model; B.1 Observable variables and data definitions; B.2 Stochastic processes and model definitions; B.3 Behavioral equations; B.4 Cross correlations of disturbances; III. Extending the Model to Include Financial-Real Linkages; A. Background; B. Model Specification Incorporating the US Bank Lending Tightening Variable; IV. Confronting the Model with the Data; A. Bayesian Estimation; B. Results; B.1 Estimates of output gap; B.2 Estimates of coefficientsB.3 Estimates of standard deviation of structural shocks and cross correlationsB.4 RMSEs; B.5 Impulse response functions; B.6 Historical variance decomposition; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix Tables; 1. GPM Data Definitions; 2. Trade Matrix (Average 2001-2007, in percent); Figures; 1. Output Gap in LA5; Text Tables; 1. Results from Posterior Maximization; 2. Estimated Parameters in the Output Gap Equation; 3. Estimated Parameters in the Inflation Equation; 4. Estimated Parameters in the Monetary Policy Rule2. Results from Posterior Parameters (Standard Deviation of Structural Shocks)3. Results from Posterior Parameters (Correlation of Structural Shocks); 4. Root Mean Squared Errors; 5. Domestic Demand Shock; 6. Domestic Price Shock; 7. Demand Shock in the US; 8. BLT Shock in the US; 9. Historical Decomposition of Inflation 2004-08This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Latin American economies to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/085GlobalizationEconomic aspectsLatin AmericaEconometricsBanks and BankingimfForeign ExchangeimfInflationimfProduction and Operations ManagementimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfMacroeconomicsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfFinanceimfOutput gapimfReal exchange ratesimfReal interest ratesimfExchange ratesimfProductionimfEconomic theoryimfPricesimfInterest ratesimfUnited StatesimfGlobalizationEconomic aspectsEconometrics.Banks and BankingForeign ExchangeInflationProduction and Operations ManagementMacroeconomics: ProductionPrice LevelDeflationInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsMacroeconomicsCurrencyForeign exchangeFinanceOutput gapReal exchange ratesReal interest ratesExchange ratesProductionEconomic theoryPricesInterest ratesDcWaIMFBOOK9910788336303321Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model3685568UNINA