05621oam 22012254 450 991078833500332120230721045714.01-4623-9310-11-4527-1374-X1-4518-7250-X1-282-84318-49786612843181(CKB)3170000000055264(EBL)1608293(SSID)ssj0000939925(PQKBManifestationID)11600605(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939925(PQKBWorkID)10938812(PQKB)10476928(OCoLC)645458446(MiAaPQ)EBC1608293(IMF)WPIEE2009103(EXLCZ)99317000000005526420020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrThe Persistence of Capital Account Crises /Mauro Mecagni, Ruben Atoyan, David HofmanWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (29 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4519-1680-9 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Conceptual Framework and Methodology; A. Crisis Persistence, Complexity, and Macroeconomic Effects; Figures; 1. Average Duration and Crisis Complexity; Tables; 1. Duration and Nature of Crises; 2. Crisis Complexity, Duration, and Macroeconomic Costs; B. Determinants of the Duration of Crises; 3. Post-Crisis Vulnerabilities; C. Econometric Methodology; III. Persistence of Capital Account Crises; A. Estimation Results and Robustness Tests; 2. Estimation Results for the Capital Account Crises Duration Model; Boxes; 1. Some Further Diagnostic ResultsB. Counterfactual Experiments 3. Descriptive Statistics for the Model Variables; 4. Predicted Probabilities of Staying in Crisis under Different Scenarios; 5. Increase in Predicted Probability of Exit from Crisis under Various Scenarios; 6. Reduction in Predicted Crisis Duration under Various Scenarios; IV. Conclusions; Appendices; 1. Measuring the Duration of Capital Account Crises; 2. A Model for the Duration of Capital Account Crises; ReferencesThis study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/103Capital movementsFinancial crisesBanks and BankingimfExports and ImportsimfFinancial Risk ManagementimfForeign ExchangeimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsimfDuration AnalysisimfIndex Numbers and Aggregationimfleading indicatorsimfFinancial CrisesimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfInternational economicsimfEconomic & financial crises & disastersimfFinanceimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfFinancial crisesimfCapital account crisisimfReal interest ratesimfExchange rate arrangementsimfExternal debtimfBalance of paymentsimfFinancial servicesimfInterest ratesimfDebts, ExternalimfTurkeyimfCapital movements.Financial crises.Banks and BankingExports and ImportsFinancial Risk ManagementForeign ExchangeCurrent Account AdjustmentShort-term Capital MovementsInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsDuration AnalysisIndex Numbers and Aggregationleading indicatorsFinancial CrisesInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsInternational economicsEconomic & financial crises & disastersFinanceCurrencyForeign exchangeFinancial crisesCapital account crisisReal interest ratesExchange rate arrangementsExternal debtBalance of paymentsFinancial servicesInterest ratesDebts, ExternalMecagni Mauro453540Atoyan Ruben855108Hofman David1472686DcWaIMFBOOK9910788335003321The Persistence of Capital Account Crises3685555UNINA