05778oam 22010814 450 991078833110332120230721045656.01-4623-6182-X1-4527-4300-21-282-84368-01-4518-7302-69786612843686(CKB)3170000000055307(EBL)1608370(SSID)ssj0000943254(PQKBManifestationID)11484314(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943254(PQKBWorkID)10974831(PQKB)11287967(OCoLC)642044575(MiAaPQ)EBC1608370(IMF)WPIEE2009155(EXLCZ)99317000000005530720020129d2009 uf 0engtxtccrSpillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African CountriesWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (22 p.)IMF Working Papers"July 2009."1-4519-1730-9 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes 7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008 VI. Conclusions; Box; ReferencesThis paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/155StocksPricesAfrica, Sub-SaharanEconometric modelsCapital stockAfrica, Sub-SaharanEconometric modelsBank loansAfrica, Sub-SaharanEconometric modelsExports and ImportsimfMacroeconomicsimfMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel DataimfInternational Finance Forecasting and SimulationimfEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesimfMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and SimulationimfCommodity MarketsimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfEmpirical Studies of TradeimfTrade: GeneralimfInternational economicsimfCommodity pricesimfOil pricesimfCommodity price fluctuationsimfTerms of tradeimfExportsimfInternational tradeimfEconomic policyimfnternational cooperationimfUnited StatesimfStocksPricesEconometric models.Capital stockEconometric models.Bank loansEconometric models.Exports and ImportsMacroeconomicsMultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel DataInternational Finance Forecasting and SimulationEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and SimulationCommodity MarketsEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesEmpirical Studies of TradeTrade: GeneralInternational economicsCommodity pricesOil pricesCommodity price fluctuationsTerms of tradeExportsInternational tradeEconomic policynternational cooperationInternational Monetary Fund.African Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788331103321Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries3685516UNINA