03623oam 22009014 450 991078823760332120230721045637.01-4623-9010-21-4519-9637-31-282-84085-11-4518-6992-49786612840852(CKB)3170000000055033(SSID)ssj0000944009(PQKBManifestationID)11544308(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944009(PQKBWorkID)10982172(PQKB)10539268(OCoLC)252906501(MiAaPQ)EBC1605815(IMF)WPIEE2008133(EXLCZ)99317000000005503320020129d2008 uf 0engurcnu||||||||txtccrCrude Oil Prices : Trends and Forecast /Noureddine KricheneWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (25 pages) illustrationsIMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/133Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph1-4519-1445-8 Includes bibliographical references.Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/133Petroleum productsPricesForecastingInvestments: EnergyimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfEnergy: GeneralimfCommodity MarketsimfInvestment & securitiesimfOil pricesimfAsset pricesimfOilimfCommodity pricesimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfUnited StatesimfPetroleum productsPricesForecasting.Investments: EnergyInflationMacroeconomicsEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesPrice LevelDeflationEnergy: GeneralCommodity MarketsInvestment & securitiesOil pricesAsset pricesOilCommodity pricesPetroleum industry and trade338.232820112Krichene Noureddine861994DcWaIMFBOOK9910788237603321Crude Oil Prices3704205UNINA