05205oam 22010934 450 991078823690332120230721045612.01-4623-8001-81-4527-8137-01-4518-7002-71-282-84095-99786612840951(CKB)3170000000055038(EBL)1607890(SSID)ssj0000943268(PQKBManifestationID)11523888(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943268(PQKBWorkID)10977403(PQKB)11311479(OCoLC)568151216(MiAaPQ)EBC1607890(IMF)WPIEE2008144(EXLCZ)99317000000005503820020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrSudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance /Jun KimWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (36 p.)IMF Working Papers"June 2008."1-4519-1455-5 Includes bibliographical references (p. 34).Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; III. Model Calibration; IV. Concluding Remarks; Text Tables; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-2007; 3. IMF Arrangements for Selected EM Countries: 1993-2006; Text Figures; 1. Actual and Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 2. Implied Probability of a Sudden Stop for Selected EM Countries: 1994-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey3. Actual θ and Default Threshold θ* for Selected EM Countries: 1993-A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; 4. Sources of Reserve Accumulation for Selected EM Countries: 1993-; A. Latin America; B. Asia, Russia and Turkey; Appendix: Creditor Coordination Problem; ReferencesThis paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between the probability of a sudden stop and the level of reserves. The calibration results for 15 selected emerging market countries in Latin America, Asia and other regions over the sample period of 1993-2006 suggest that the risk of sudden stops may have declined to a low level in recent years in all countries in the sample. The results also suggest that Asia and Russia may have been significantly over insured since early 2000s with estimated excess reserves of US$ 1 trillion in total at end-2006.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/144Bank reservesDeveloping countriesEconometric modelsFinancial crisesDeveloping countriesEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfExports and ImportsimfFinance: GeneralimfInternational InvestmentimfLong-term Capital MovementsimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfMonetary PolicyimfInternational economicsimfFinanceimfBankingimfSudden stopsimfCapital account crisisimfCurrent accountimfEmerging and frontier financial marketsimfReserves accumulationimfCapital movementsimfBalance of paymentsimfFinancial services industryimfForeign exchange reservesimfTurkeyimfBank reservesEconometric models.Financial crisesEconometric models.Banks and BankingExports and ImportsFinance: GeneralInternational InvestmentLong-term Capital MovementsCurrent Account AdjustmentShort-term Capital MovementsGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)Monetary PolicyInternational economicsFinanceBankingSudden stopsCapital account crisisCurrent accountEmerging and frontier financial marketsReserves accumulationCapital movementsBalance of paymentsFinancial services industryForeign exchange reservesKim Jun1485150International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788236903321Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance3704198UNINA