06358oam 22012374 450 991078823290332120230721045616.01-4623-0736-11-4527-0266-797866128413161-4518-7038-81-282-84131-9(CKB)3170000000055081(EBL)1607964(SSID)ssj0000943977(PQKBManifestationID)11612507(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943977(PQKBWorkID)10983800(PQKB)10975734(OCoLC)763008862(MiAaPQ)EBC1607964(IMF)WPIEE2008180(EXLCZ)99317000000005508120020129d2008 uf 0engtxtccrBank Recycling of Petro Dollars to Emerging Market Economies During the Current Oil Price Boom /Johannes WiegandWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (28 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4519-1491-1 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Bank Flows to Emerging Markets, 1970-1985; 2. Emerging Markets: Current Account, 1970-2007; Tables; 1. Emerging Markets: Current Account Position by Region; 2. Oil Exporters: External Position and Deposit Flows into BIS-Reporting Banks, 2001-06; II. Data and Some Stylized Facts; III. Identification and Estimation Strategy; 3. Correlation of Deposit Outflows with the IMF Average Oil Price.; 3. Identifying and Estimating Petro-Dollar Bank Flows: Basic Scheme; 4. Identifying and Estimating Petro-Dollar Bank Flows: Extended Scheme; IV. ResultsA. Descriptive Statistics 4. Quarterly Flows into and out of BIS Reporting Bank, Q2 2001-Q4 2006...; B. Basic Estimation Results; 5. Cross-Border Loans, 1990-2007; 5. Basic Regression Results; C. Detailed Results; 6. Extended Regression Results; D. Region Specific Estimates; 6. Bank Loans by Recipient Region; E. Robustness Checks and Extensions; Parameter Stability; 7. Region Specific Estimates; 7. Regression Residuals; Dynamic Specifications; 8. Re-Recursive Estimation; Feedback and Reverse Causality; 8. Dynamic Specifications; Assets and Liabilities vs. Loans and Deposits; 9. Feedback10. Assets and Liabilities V. Summary: Key Results and Implications for Emerging Market Vulnerabilities; 9. Non-Loan Asset Flows, 1996-2007; References; Appendices; I. Country and Territory Groupings; II. Detailed Descriptive StatisticsHigh oil prices have once again led to large external surpluses of oil exporting countries, similar to the 1970s and 1980s. This paper analyzes the extent to which (i) oil exporters use bank deposits to invest these surpluses, and (ii) banks are lending on these funds to emerging market economies. Bank recycling of petro dollars to emerging market economies is found to be almost as important as in the 1970s and 1980s, even though during the current boom, petro dollar bank flows tend to originate in countries like Russia, Libya, or Nigeria rather than in the Middle East. As one consequence, a fall in oil prices could yet again disrupt financing flows to emerging economies. Especially at risk could be countries that rely heavily on bank loans to finance external deficits, many of them in Emerging Europe.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/180Capital movementsEconometric modelsBanks and bankingEconometric modelsPetroleum industry and tradeEconomic aspectsEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfInvestments: EnergyimfFinance: GeneralimfMacroeconomicsimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfEnergy: GeneralimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfBanksimfDepository InstitutionsimfMicro Finance InstitutionsimfMortgagesimfMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralimfFinanceimfInvestment & securitiesimfBankingimfMonetary economicsimfEmerging and frontier financial marketsimfOilimfOil pricesimfBank creditimfFinancial services industryimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfBanks and bankingimfCreditimfUnited StatesimfCapital movementsEconometric models.Banks and bankingEconometric models.Petroleum industry and tradeEconomic aspectsEconometric models.Banks and BankingInvestments: EnergyFinance: GeneralMacroeconomicsMoney and Monetary PolicyGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)Energy: GeneralEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesBanksDepository InstitutionsMicro Finance InstitutionsMortgagesMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralFinanceInvestment & securitiesBankingMonetary economicsEmerging and frontier financial marketsOilOil pricesBank creditFinancial services industryPetroleum industry and tradeBanks and bankingCredit332.820971Wiegand Johannes820400DcWaIMFBOOK9910788232903321Bank Recycling of Petro Dollars to Emerging Market Economies During the Current Oil Price Boom3704158UNINA