05335oam 22012014 450 991078823100332120230721045640.01-4623-9817-01-4527-3798-31-4518-7056-697866128414911-282-84149-1(CKB)3170000000055100(EBL)1608006(SSID)ssj0000944023(PQKBManifestationID)11528593(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944023(PQKBWorkID)10982811(PQKB)11787939(OCoLC)763082956(MiAaPQ)EBC1608006(IMF)WPIEE2008198(EXLCZ)99317000000005510020020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrEquilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries /Alun Thomas, Jun Kim, Aqib AslamWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (26 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/198Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1509-8 Contents; I. Introduction; II. Basic Structure of Alternative Methodology; Existing analysis; III. Model; A. General Model; B. Model Application to Oil Based Economy; IV. Estimation; V. Sensitivity Tests of the Annual Return on Oil Wealth; VI. Equilibrium Non-oil Current Account Assessment; A. Historical Accuracy of the Consumption Smoothing Model; B. Country Estimates of Non-oil Current Account; VII. Conclusions; ReferencesThis paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/198Equilibrium (Economics)Econometric modelsBalance of paymentsEconometric modelsPetroleum industry and tradeEconometric modelsInvestments: EnergyimfExports and ImportsimfMacroeconomicsimfIndustries: EnergyimfEnergy: GeneralimfCurrent Account AdjustmentimfShort-term Capital MovementsimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfMacroeconomics: ConsumptionimfSavingimfWealthimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfInvestment & securitiesimfInternational economicsimfPetroleum, oil & gas industriesimfOilimfCurrent accountimfOil pricesimfConsumptionimfOil productionimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfBalance of paymentsimfEconomicsimfUnited Arab EmiratesimfEquilibrium (Economics)Econometric models.Balance of paymentsEconometric models.Petroleum industry and tradeEconometric models.Investments: EnergyExports and ImportsMacroeconomicsIndustries: EnergyEnergy: GeneralCurrent Account AdjustmentShort-term Capital MovementsEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesMacroeconomics: ConsumptionSavingWealthMacroeconomics: ProductionInvestment & securitiesInternational economicsPetroleum, oil & gas industriesOilCurrent accountOil pricesConsumptionOil productionPetroleum industry and tradeBalance of paymentsEconomics339.5Thomas Alun1098448Kim Jun1485150Aslam Aqib1485151DcWaIMFBOOK9910788231003321Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries3704139UNINA