04953oam 22012734 450 991078822690332120230721045721.01-4623-4466-61-4518-7349-297866128440961-4527-6923-01-282-84409-1(CKB)3170000000055349(SSID)ssj0000940071(PQKBManifestationID)11491949(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940071(PQKBWorkID)10946531(PQKB)11326867(OCoLC)648819742(MiAaPQ)EBC1608830(IMF)WPIEE2009202(EXLCZ)99317000000005534920020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrBenchmark Priors Revisited : On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging /Martin Feldkircher, Stefan ZeugnerWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.39 p. col. illIMF Working Papers"September 2009."1-4519-1771-6 Includes bibliographical references.Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. Analytically, existing work on the hyper-g-prior is complemented by posterior expressions essential to fully Bayesian analysis and to sound numerical implementation. A simulation experiment illustrates the implications for posterior inference. Furthermore, an application to determinants of economic growth identifies several covariates whose robustness differs considerably from previous results.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/202Bayesian statistical decision theoryEconomic developmentMathematical modelsEconometricsimfInflationimfLaborimfPublic FinanceimfData ProcessingimfBayesian Analysis: GeneralimfData Collection and Data Estimation MethodologyimfComputer Programs: GeneralimfNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: InfrastructuresimfOther Public Investment and Capital StockimfHuman CapitalimfSkillsimfOccupational ChoiceimfLabor ProductivityimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfBayesian inferenceimfData capture & analysisimfPublic finance & taxationimfLabourimfincome economicsimfMacroeconomicsimfBayesian modelsimfData processingimfPublic investment and public-private partnerships (PPP)imfHuman capitalimfEconometric modelsimfElectronic data processingimfPublic-private sector cooperationimfPricesimfBayesian statistical decision theory.Economic developmentMathematical models.EconometricsInflationLaborPublic FinanceData ProcessingBayesian Analysis: GeneralData Collection and Data Estimation MethodologyComputer Programs: GeneralNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: InfrastructuresOther Public Investment and Capital StockHuman CapitalSkillsOccupational ChoiceLabor ProductivityPrice LevelDeflationBayesian inferenceData capture & analysisPublic finance & taxationLabourincome economicsMacroeconomicsBayesian modelsData processingPublic investment and public-private partnerships (PPP)Human capitalEconometric modelsElectronic data processingPublic-private sector cooperationPricesFeldkircher Martin1509596Zeugner Stefan1509597International Monetary Fund.Finance Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788226903321Benchmark Priors Revisited3741573UNINA