05030oam 22012614 450 991078822570332120230721045714.01-4623-7594-41-282-84420-21-4527-2887-91-4518-7361-19786612844201(CKB)3170000000055361(SSID)ssj0000940095(PQKBManifestationID)11528466(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940095(PQKBWorkID)10949251(PQKB)10175152(OCoLC)694140988(MiAaPQ)EBC1608844(IMF)WPIEE2009214(EXLCZ)99317000000005536120020129d2009 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrConstructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis /Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Huigang Chen, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas LaxtonWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.23 p. illIMF Working Papers"September 2009."1-4519-1783-X We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/214Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009Financial crisesUnited StatesEconometric modelsFinancial crisesEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsFinancial crisesJapanEconometric modelsPetroleum productsPricesUnited StatesEconometric modelsPetroleum productsPricesEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsPetroleum productsPricesJapanEconometric modelsInterest ratesUnited StatesEconometric modelsInterest ratesEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsInterest ratesJapanEconometric modelsBank loansUnited StatesEconometric modelsBank loansEuropean Union countriesEconometric modelsBank loansJapanEconometric modelsForeign ExchangeimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfProduction and Operations ManagementimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfOil pricesimfOutput gapimfPotential outputimfReal exchange ratesimfProductionimfEconomic theoryimfUnited StatesimfGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.Financial crisesEconometric models.Financial crisesEconometric models.Financial crisesEconometric models.Petroleum productsPricesEconometric models.Petroleum productsPricesEconometric models.Petroleum productsPricesEconometric models.Interest ratesEconometric models.Interest ratesEconometric models.Interest ratesEconometric models.Bank loansEconometric models.Bank loansEconometric models.Bank loansEconometric models.Foreign ExchangeInflationMacroeconomicsProduction and Operations ManagementMacroeconomics: ProductionEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesPrice LevelDeflationCurrencyForeign exchangeOil pricesOutput gapPotential outputReal exchange ratesProductionEconomic theoryClinton Kevin185170Johnson Marianne1509586Chen Huigang1472717Kamenik Ondrej1509587Laxton Douglas1462103International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788225703321Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis3741561UNINA