06650oam 22013334 450 991078822540332120230721045730.01-4623-9814-61-4527-9849-41-282-84422-997866128442251-4518-7365-4(CKB)3170000000055364(EBL)1605936(SSID)ssj0000940129(PQKBManifestationID)11600624(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940129(PQKBWorkID)10947349(PQKB)11023488(OCoLC)680613599(MiAaPQ)EBC1605936(IMF)WPIEE2009218(EXLCZ)99317000000005536420020129d2009 uf 0engurun#---auuuutxtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierDo Trading Partners Still Matter for Nigeria's Growth? A Contribution to the Debateon Decoupling and Spillovers /Kingsley ObioraWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (47 pages)IMF Working Papers"October 2009."1-4519-1785-6 I. Introduction; II. Trade and Financial Linkages; 1. Nigeria's Trade Openness (in percent of GDP, 1991-2008); 2. Nigeria: Direction of Trade in Goods and Services (in percent of total, 1990-2007); 3. Nigeria: Main Exports Markets in the EU (1990-2007); 1. Partnership Between Nigerian Banks and Foreign Asset Managers; 4. Net Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria (in billions of US Dollars, 1980-2008); 5. Remittances to Nigeria (in millions of US Dollars, 1995-2007); 6. Business Cycle Correlations Between Nigeria and its Key Trading Partners7. Quarterly Real GDP Growth RatesIII. Description of Data; 2. Results of Unit Root Tests Using the Ng-Perron Procedure; IV. Methodology; V. Results; A. Base Vector Autoregression Model; 3. Lag Length Selection; 4. Variance Decomposition for Nigeria's Real GDP (Base VAR Model); 5. Variance Decomposition for Nigeria's Real GDP (Extended VAR Model); 8. Nigeria: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners and PPP-implied Exchange Rate (Base VAR Model); B. Extended Vector Autoregression Model9. Nigeria: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners, Oil Price Growth, and PPP-implied Exchange Rate (Extended VAR Model)VI. Channels of Spillovers; 10. Decomposition of Spillovers from Nigeria's Key Trading Partners; VII. Conclusions and Lessons for Policy; 1. VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test; References; FootnotesShould policymakers still be concerned about economic growth in trading partners? Have developing and emerging market countries decoupled from the US enough to grow despite significant recession in the US? Using VAR models, this paper addresses these questions for Nigeria in the context of the global crisis. The results seem to debunk the "decoupling theory" and suggest there are still significant spillovers from Nigeria's main trading partners, including the US, with trade and commodity price linkages being the dominant transmission channels. Given the sharp fall in both trade financing and commodity prices in aftermath of the crisis, these results provide some explanation to the realization of adverse second-round effects in Nigeria.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/218Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009Financial crisesNigeriaEconometric modelsEconometricsimfFinance: GeneralimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfTime-Series ModelsimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfBusiness FluctuationsimfCyclesimfEconomic IntegrationimfEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesimfExternalitiesimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfFinanceimfSpilloversimfExchange ratesimfVector autoregressionimfOil pricesimfEmerging and frontier financial marketsimfFinancial sector policy and analysisimfEconometric analysisimfFinancial marketsimfInternational financeimfFinancial services industryimfNigeriaCommerceEconometric modelsNigeriaEconomic conditionsEconometric modelsNigeriaimfGlobal Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.Financial crisesEconometric models.EconometricsFinance: GeneralForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsTime-Series ModelsDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsDiffusion ProcessesBusiness FluctuationsCyclesEconomic IntegrationEconomic Growth of Open EconomiesExternalitiesEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)CurrencyForeign exchangeEconometrics & economic statisticsFinanceSpilloversExchange ratesVector autoregressionOil pricesEmerging and frontier financial marketsFinancial sector policy and analysisEconometric analysisFinancial marketsInternational financeFinancial services industryObiora Kingsley1509584International Monetary Fund.Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788225403321Do Trading Partners Still Matter for Nigeria's Growth? A Contribution to the Debateon Decoupling and Spillovers3741558UNINA