07061oam 22012854 450 991078822490332120230721045722.01-4623-2750-81-282-84441-597866128444161-4518-7388-31-4527-8840-5(CKB)3170000000055371(EBL)1605949(SSID)ssj0000939930(PQKBManifestationID)11596385(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939930(PQKBWorkID)10939159(PQKB)11177470(OCoLC)680613569(MiAaPQ)EBC1605949(IMF)WPIEE2009241(EXLCZ)99317000000005537120020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area /Marco Lombardi, Raphael Espinoza, Fabio FornariWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (56 p.)IMF Working Papers"November 2009."1-4519-1805-4 Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The VAR models; A. Data; 1. Rates of Growth of Real GDP in the Three Economic Areas (quarter-on-quarter); B. Specifications; III. Characterizing the Models; A. IRFs and Pre-1985 and Post-1985 Evidence; 2. Impulse Response Functions from a Trivariate VAR; 3. Impulse Response Function from a 9-Variable VAR; 4. Impulse Response Function to GDP Shocks Across Sub-Samples; 5. Impulse Response Functions Across Sub-Samples; B. Linkages and the Role of Financial Shocks; 6. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for the Euro Area GDP1. Variance Decomposition of the GDP in the Three Areas2. R2 of a Regression of Δlog GDP on its Counterfactual; 7. Historical Decomposition; IV. Out-of-Sample Evidence; A. 'Unconditional' Forecast Evaluation; 3. Unconditional Out-of-Sample RMSE; B. Conditional Forecast Evaluation; 4. Out-of-Sample RMSE; 5. Out-of-Sample RMSE; C. Additional Explanatory Factors; 6. Conditional Choice Between Models at Selected Horizons; V. Conditional Evaluation; A. Rolling RMSEs; 8. RMSE from Competing Classes of Models; 9. RMSE from Competing Classes of Models (ctd.); B. Conditional Predictive Ability Test10. GW Test for Conditional Predictive - Random Walk Model11. GW Test for Conditional Predictive Ability - 2 GDP VAR; 12. GW Test for Conditional Predictive Ability - 3 GDP VAR; VI. Conclusions; References; FootnotesThe U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an aggregation of seven small countries) and selected combinations of financial variables. Impulse responses (in-sample) show that shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric, this macro-financial linkage would be weak: financial indicators do not improve short and medium term forecasts of real activity in the euro area, even when their timely availability, relative to GDP, is exploited. This result is partly due to the 'average' nature of the RMSE metric: when forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (conditionally on the information available at the time of the forecast), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred, ex ante, in several episodes, in particular between 1999 and 2002. This result suggests that one should not discard, on the basis of RMSE statistics, the use of predictive models that include financial variables if there is a theoretical prior that a financial shock is affecting growth.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/241Business cyclesEuropeBusiness cyclesUnited StatesEconomic indicatorsEuropeEconomic indicatorsUnited StatesBanks and BankingimfEconometricsimfFinance: GeneralimfStatisticsimfIndustries: Financial ServicesimfTime-Series ModelsimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfData Collection and Data Estimation MethodologyimfComputer Programs: OtherimfBanksimfDepository InstitutionsimfMicro Finance InstitutionsimfMortgagesimfFinanceimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfVector autoregressionimfStock marketsimfYield curveimfFinancial statisticsimfLoansimfStock exchangesimfInterest ratesimfUnited StatesimfBusiness cyclesBusiness cyclesEconomic indicatorsEconomic indicatorsBanks and BankingEconometricsFinance: GeneralStatisticsIndustries: Financial ServicesTime-Series ModelsDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsDiffusion ProcessesGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsData Collection and Data Estimation MethodologyComputer Programs: OtherBanksDepository InstitutionsMicro Finance InstitutionsMortgagesFinanceEconometrics & economic statisticsVector autoregressionStock marketsYield curveFinancial statisticsLoansStock exchangesInterest ratesLombardi Marco35223Espinoza Raphael1143129Fornari Fabio1509583International Monetary Fund.Middle East and Central Asia Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788224903321The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area3741553UNINA