06568oam 22010934 450 991078822150332120230721045741.01-4623-2649-81-282-84470-91-4518-7428-61-4527-5711-99786612844706(CKB)3170000000055405(EBL)1606013(SSID)ssj0000948677(PQKBManifestationID)11602670(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948677(PQKBWorkID)10950791(PQKB)10893713(OCoLC)671571361(MiAaPQ)EBC1606013(IMF)WPIEE2009283(EXLCZ)99317000000005540520020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrTrade and Thy Neighbor’s War /Mahvash QureshiWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (84 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4519-1844-5 Includes bibliographical references.Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. Analytical framework; B. Estimation issues; C. Defining neighbor at war; III. Data; A. Neighbor at war; Figure 1. Conflict in neighboring countries, 1948-2006; Figure 2. Societal armed conflict in neighboring states, 1950-2006; Figure 3. International armed conflict in neighboring states, 1950-2006; Figure 4. Conflict and bilateral trade, 1948-2006; B. Dyadic data description; Table 1. Correlation between domestic and regional conflicts, 1948-2006Table 2. Distribution of societal and international conflict in neighbors, 1948-2006IV. Empirical Results; A. World sample; Table 3. Estimation results for conflict presence, world sample (1948-2006); Table 4. Estimation results for conflict intensity, world sample (1948-2006); Table 5. Estimation results for border weighted conflict, world sample (1948-2006); B. Subsamples; Table 6. Estimation results for conflict presence, subsamples (1948-2006); Table 7. Estimation results for conflict intensity, subsamples (1948-2006)Table 8. Estimation results for border weighted conflict presence, subsamples (1948-2006)Table 9. Estimation results for border weighted conflict intensity, subsamples (1948-2006); Figure 5. Regional conflict and trade, 1950-2006; C. Dynamic effects of neighbors at war; Figure 6. Impact of regional conflicts on bilateral trade, 1948-2006; Table 10. Estimation results for regional conflict duration, 1948-2006; Table 11. Persistence in regional warfare effects, world sample (1948-2006); Table 12. Persistence in regional warfare effects, subsamples (1948-2006); D. Sensitivity analysisV. ConclusionAppendix A; Table A1. Variable definitions and data sources; Table A2. Summary statistics of selected variables for dyadic data; Table A3. List of countries based on income groups; Appendix B; Table B1. Estimation results with alternate datasets; Table B2. Estimation results with alternate proxies, 1948-2006; Table B3. Estimation results with alternate specifications, 1948-2006; Table B4. Estimation results with IV approach, 1948-2006; Table B5. Estimation results for different regions, 1948-2006; References; FootnotesThis paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings-based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and conflict-reveal a significant collateral damage in terms of foregone trade as a result of spillovers from conflict in neighboring countries. The magnitude of this negative externality is somewhat larger for international conflicts than intrastate warfare, but about one-third of conflict in the host economies. Further, the impact is persistent-on average, it takes bilateral trade three years to recover from the end of intrastate conflicts in neighboring states, and five years from international conflicts. These findings are robust to alternate definitions of conflict, estimation methods, and specifications, and underscore the importance of taking into account spillover effects when estimating the economic costs of warfare.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/283International tradeInternational economic relationsEconometricsimfExports and ImportsimfMacroeconomicsimfTrade PolicyimfInternational Trade OrganizationsimfPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsimfEmpirical Studies of TradeimfEstimationimfEconometric Modeling: GeneralimfInternational economicsimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfPlurilateral tradeimfPersonal incomeimfTrade balanceimfEstimation techniquesimfGravity modelsimfInternational tradeimfIncomeimfBalance of tradeimfEconometric modelsimfTanzania, United Republic ofimfInternational trade.International economic relations.EconometricsExports and ImportsMacroeconomicsTrade PolicyInternational Trade OrganizationsPersonal Income, Wealth, and Their DistributionsEmpirical Studies of TradeEstimationEconometric Modeling: GeneralInternational economicsEconometrics & economic statisticsPlurilateral tradePersonal incomeTrade balanceEstimation techniquesGravity modelsInternational tradeIncomeBalance of tradeEconometric modelsQureshi Mahvash1485180International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788221503321Trade and Thy Neighbor’s War3741519UNINA