04731oam 22011414 450 991078822060332120230725040430.01-4623-5777-61-4527-2079-71-282-84526-81-4519-6217-79786612845260(CKB)3170000000055418(SSID)ssj0001477882(PQKBManifestationID)11892584(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477882(PQKBWorkID)11461921(PQKB)10062116(OCoLC)680613531(MiAaPQ)EBC1606058(IMF)WPIEE2010017(EXLCZ)99317000000005541820020129d2010 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrInflation in Tajikistan : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges /Svetlana Vtyurina, Fahad AlturkiWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2010.19 p. illIMF Working PapersBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph1-4519-1866-6 Includes bibliographical references.This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2010/017Inflation (Finance)TajikistanMonetary policyTajikistanEconometricsimfForeign ExchangeimfInflationimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfForecastingimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfMultiple or Simultaneous Equation ModelsimfMultiple Variables: GeneralimfMacroeconomicsimfMonetary economicsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfEconomic ForecastingimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfMonetary baseimfExchange ratesimfEconomic forecastingimfVector error correction modelsimfPricesimfMoney supplyimfEconometric modelsimfTajikistan, Republic ofimfInflation (Finance)Monetary policyEconometricsForeign ExchangeInflationMoney and Monetary PolicyForecastingPrice LevelDeflationMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsMultiple or Simultaneous Equation ModelsMultiple Variables: GeneralMacroeconomicsMonetary economicsCurrencyForeign exchangeEconomic ForecastingEconometrics & economic statisticsMonetary baseExchange ratesEconomic forecastingVector error correction modelsPricesMoney supplyEconometric modelsVtyurina Svetlana1509544Alturki Fahad1509545International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788220603321Inflation in Tajikistan3741510UNINA