07224oam 22011294 450 991078648070332120230801225316.01-4755-1037-31-4755-1431-X(CKB)2670000000278836(EBL)1606956(SSID)ssj0000949447(PQKBManifestationID)11958267(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949447(PQKBWorkID)11014320(PQKB)11314871(MiAaPQ)EBC1606956(Au-PeEL)EBL1606956(CaPaEBR)ebr10627057(OCoLC)870244999(IMF)WPIEE2012212(IMF)WPIEA2012212(EXLCZ)99267000000027883620020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrEmerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : Estimation and Back-testing /Fabio ComelliWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (44 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4755-4252-6 1-4755-0562-0 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature; III. The data; A. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Data; B. Pull Factors Data; Political Risk Rating (PRR); Economic Risk Rating (ERR); Financial Risk Rating (FRR); C. Push Factors Data; IV. The Model; V. Regression Results; A. Baseline regression; B. Global Abundant Liquidity and Global Financial Crisis; Tables; Table 1. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, All Emerging Market Economies; C. Regional Subgroups; D. How Do Fitted Bond Spreads Compare With Actual Bond Spreads?Table 2. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates Across EM Regions.Figures; Panel 1. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (basis points); Panel 2. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads: (basis points); E. Robustness Checks; Table 3. Sovereign Bond Spreads: Coefficient Estimates, Robustness Checks; Panel 3. Actual and Fitted Sovereign Bond Spreads (Basis points); F. Simulating an Improvement in Country-specific Variables on Bond Spreads; Table 4. Impact of one-standard deviation change on the model spread (Percent)Panel 4. Impact on the Model Spread Provoked by a One-standard Deviation ChangeVI. Back-testing the Model; A. Linear Prediction Method; B. Rolling Regression Method; Table 5. Probabilities that the linear prediction method correctly predicts (i) the; Table 6. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR1) method correctly predicts; C. Comparing Competing Forecasts; Table 7. Measuring the accuracy of bond spread forecasts with the Diebold-Mariano; VII. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendixes; A. Tables; Appendix TablesTable A1. Probabilities that the rolling regression (RR2) method correctly predictsTable A2. Comparing rolling regression and linear prediction forecasts with the Diebold- Mariano test; Table A3. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR1) method; Table A4. Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Theil's U Statistics for the rolling regression (RR2) method; B. Charts; Panel A1. Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Actual, Fitted and Residuals; Panel A2: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 1998 - December 2001Panel A3: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2002 - December 2005Panel A4: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2006 - December 2009; Panel A5: Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spread Tracker: January 2010 - December 2011We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/212State bondsEconometric modelsGovernment securitiesEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfFinance: GeneralimfInvestments: BondsimfInternational Finance Forecasting and SimulationimfFinancial Forecasting and SimulationimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfFinanceimfInvestment & securitiesimfYield curveimfSovereign bondsimfEmerging and frontier financial marketsimfBond yieldsimfSecurities marketsimfFinancial servicesimfFinancial institutionsimfFinancial marketsimfInterest ratesimfBondsimfFinancial services industryimfCapital marketimfUnited StatesimfState bondsEconometric models.Government securitiesEconometric models.Banks and BankingFinance: GeneralInvestments: BondsInternational Finance Forecasting and SimulationFinancial Forecasting and SimulationInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)FinanceInvestment & securitiesYield curveSovereign bondsEmerging and frontier financial marketsBond yieldsSecurities marketsFinancial servicesFinancial institutionsFinancial marketsInterest ratesBondsFinancial services industryCapital marketComelli Fabio1082917DcWaIMFBOOK9910786480703321Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads3858194UNINA08420nam 2200625 450 991082712780332120220209181950.01-118-70528-91-118-70556-4(CKB)2550000001198363(EBL)1603103(SSID)ssj0001111491(PQKBManifestationID)11636863(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001111491(PQKBWorkID)11130723(PQKB)11243850(DLC) 2013047039(Au-PeEL)EBL1603103(CaPaEBR)ebr10833757(CaONFJC)MIL571619(OCoLC)863801819(CaSebORM)9781118705285(MiAaPQ)EBC1603103(EXLCZ)99255000000119836320140213h20142014 uy 0engurunu|||||txtccrBrief make a bigger impact by saying less /Joseph McCormack ; Megan Palicki, cover design ; Joan Bueta, illustration design1st editionHoboken, New Jersey :Wiley,2014.©20141 online resource (258 p.)Includes index.1-306-40368-5 1-118-70496-7 Includes bibliographical references and index.Machine generated contents note: Foreword ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS PREFACE Introduction PART ONE Awareness Heightened Awareness in a World Begging for BRIEF CHAPTER ONE Why Brevity is Vital Get to the point or pay the price Executive -- Interrupted Who's responsible for adapting when the message is not being heard? Timing is of the essence BRIEF Balance: The harmony of clear, concise, and compelling A BRIEF Timeout CHAPTER TWO Mindful of Mind-filled-ness Brevity is like an instant stress release The flood 1. Information inundation -- the water's rising 2. Inattention -- the muscle is weakening 3. Interruption -- the rate is alarming 4. Impatience -- the ice is thinning What does it all mean? Your new reality: There's no time for a slow build up Test yourself Examination of brevity A new professional standard CHAPTER THREE Why You Struggle With Brevity: The Seven Capital Sins Why is it so difficult? 1. Cowardice 2. Confidence 3. Callousness 4. Comfort 5. Confusion 6. Complication: 7. Carelessness: CHAPTER FOUR The Big Bang of Brevity A success story PART TWO Discipline How to Gain Discipline to be Clear and Concise CHAPTER FIVE Mental Muscle Memory to Master Brevity The exercise of brevity CHAPTER SIX Map It: From Mind Mapping to BRIEF Maps Your 11th-grade English teacher was right Excuse to impact ratio An outline is missing, and so is the sale Mind mapping and the modern outline BRIEF Maps: A practical tool to delivering brevity How a BRIEF Map can be used Wrong Approach: Bob chooses to share but not to prepare. Right Approach: Bob prepares a BRIEF Map and maintains executive support. Step 1: Build a BRIEF Box Step 2: B, or the Background/Beginning Step 3: R, or Reason/Relevance Step 4: I, or key Information Step 5: E, or intended Ending Step 6: F, expected Follow-up questions Result: A successful update BRIEF Maps: What's the payoff? CHAPTER SEVEN Tell it: The Role of Narratives I'm tired of meaningless and meandering corporate jargon. I'm ready for a good story. Where's the disconnect? When a story is missing. The birth of Narrative Mapping: A way to organize and deliver your story Rediscovery of narratives and storytelling: breaking through the blah, blah, blah Listen, I'm ready for a story Think about your audience: Journalism 2.0 and the elements of a narrative Warning #1: Keep stories short Warning #2: Don't fall in love with fables and the "Once Upon A Time" trap Warning #3: Don't just promote storytelling; teach it Narrative Map (de)constructed Seeing and hearing is believing: The story of the evolution of commerce CHAPTER EIGHT Talk it: Controlled Conversations and TALC Tracks Risky business trip Controlled conversations are a game of tennis, not golf TALC Tracks -- A structure for balance and brevity Be prepared for anything Audience, Audience, Audience. CHAPTER NINE Show It: Powerful Ways to Make a Picture Exceed a Thousand Words Show and Tell: which would you choose? You can see the shift Seeing supersedes reading A visual language Connect an image with your story Momentary magic: Infographics in business Breakdown of complex information The age of YouTube and business TL;DR: Too Long; Didn't Read CHAPTER TEN Putting Brevity to Work: Grainger and the Al and Betty Story PART THREE Decisiveness Gaining the decisiveness to know when and where to be brief CHAPTER ELEVEN Meeting You Half-Way Defeat the villains of meetings Meeting villain #1: Time Meeting villain #2: Type Meeting villain #3: Tyrants Change the format and tone -- make it a conversation Put brief back into a briefing Long story, short. CHAPTER TWELVE Leaving a Smaller Digital Imprint The digital flood BRIEF Hall of Fame: Verne Harnish From social media to venture capital Social Media Squeeze Long story, short. CHAPTER THIRTEEN Presenting a Briefer Case Practicing what you preach The discipline of brevity Putting the power back in PowerPoint Training like a TED Talk CHAPTER FOURTEEN Trimming Your Sales (Pitch) Shut up and sell Billboard on a bumper sticker Cut to the customer's chase Long story, short. CHAPTER FIFTEEN Whose Bright Idea Was That Anyway? Your big idea A mission-critical narrative Clear picture with radical focus The entrepreneur's dilemma: mixed messages Tailor your pitch to your investor's needs Long story, short. CHAPTER SIXTEEN It's Never Really Small Talk Brevity as a conversational life raft Momentary misgivings stall momentum Walk the walk, talk the talk Long story, short. CHAPTER SEVENTEEN Help Wanted: Master of Brevity Not the time for anxious rambling Let others lead the conversation Talking your way out of a job offer Long story, short. CHAPTER EIGHTEEN I've Got Some Good News Pay the favor of brevity forward Let the brilliance shine through Speak the language of success Get into the habit of saying thank you CHAPTER NINETEEN And the Bad News Is... The bright (and brief) side of bearing bad news Give it to them straight Serving up the s#&$ sandwich CHAPTER TWENTY Got-A-Minute Updates The "say-do" ratio The most important question: Why am I here? PART FOUR Being BRIEF Summary and Action Plan Resources CITATIONS AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY ."Get heard by being clear and concise The only way to survive in business today is to be a lean communicator. Busy executives expect you to respect and manage their time more effectively than ever. You need to do the groundwork to make your message tight and to the point. The average professional receives 304 emails per week and checks their smartphones 36 times an hour and 38 hours a week. This inattention has spread to every part of life. The average attention span has shrunk from 12 seconds in 2000 to eight in 2012.So, throw them a lifeline and be brief.Author Joe McCormack tackles the challenges of inattention, interruptions, and impatience that every professional faces. His proven B.R.I.E.F. approach, which stands for Background, Relevance, Information, Ending, and Follow up, helps simplify and clarify complex communication. BRIEF will help you summarize lengthy information, tell a short story, harness the power of infographics and videos, and turn monologue presentations into controlled conversations. Details the B.R.I.E.F. approach to distilling your message into a brief presentation Written by the founder and CEO of Sheffield Marketing Partners, which specializes in message and narrative development, who is also a recognized expert in Narrative Mapping, a technique that helps clients achieve a clearer and more concise message Long story short: BRIEF will help you gain the muscle you need to eliminate wasteful words and stand out from the rest. Be better. Be brief.--Provided by publisher.Business communicationBusiness communication.650.1/3019BUS007000bisacshMcCormack Joseph1965-1626187Palicki Megan1626188Bueta Joan1626189MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910827127803321Brief3962076UNINA