05864oam 22011654 450 991078647500332120230801225511.01-4755-9827-01-4755-3267-9(CKB)2670000000278940(EBL)1606895(SSID)ssj0000940769(PQKBManifestationID)11532940(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940769(PQKBWorkID)10956079(PQKB)11383836(MiAaPQ)EBC1606895(Au-PeEL)EBL1606895(CaPaEBR)ebr10627161(OCoLC)870245018(IMF)WPIEE2012192(IMF)WPIEA2012192(EXLCZ)99267000000027894020020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrInflation Dynamics in Mongolia : Understanding the Roller Coaster /Julia Bersch, Steven Barnett, Yasuhisa OjimaWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (22 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/12/192Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-6088-5 1-4755-0541-8 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Inflation: Headline CPI; 2. Inflation, 1995-2010; II. A Closer Look at the Consumer Price Index; 3. Export Earnings and Fiscal Spending; 4. Administered Price Changes; 5. Inflation: Contributions to Change; 6. Inflation Rates; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics of the Overall Inflation Rate and the Main Subcomponents; 7 Seasonal Factors; 8. Inflation Rates (In percent, seasonally adjuted annualized rate month-on-month); 9. Inflation Rates (In percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate)III. Understanding Inflation Through its Time Series PropertiesA. Inflation Persistence and Expectations; 2. Persistence in CPI and its Subcomponents; 10. Inflation: Persistence Shocks; 3. Mongolia and Other Copper Producers; B. Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) Analysis; 11 Impulse Response Functions; IV. Demand-pull Factor of Inflation; A. The Role of Fiscal Spending; 12 Variance Decomposition; 13. Fiscal Spending (In percent of non-mineral GDP); 14. Fiscal Spending (In percent, 4-quarter moving average, year-on-year); 4. Inflationary Impact of Government Spending, 2000-11B. The Role of Output Gaps and the Exchange Rate15. Mongolia: Output Gap (2000Q1-2011Q4); 16. Exchange Rates; 5. Phillips-Curve Estimation; V. International Context; A. Commodity Prices; 17. Food Prices; 18. Rice Prices; 19. Wheat and Flour Prices; B. Price Spillovers from Neighboring Countries-China and Russia; 6. China and Russia; VI. Conclusion; Annex. The Ulaanbaatar and National CPIs; ReferencesInflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia’s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/192Inflation (Finance)MongoliaFinanceMongoliaInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfEconomic TheoryimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfBusiness FluctuationsimfCyclesimfTime-Series ModelsimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisimfPricesimfEconomic theory & philosophyimfFood pricesimfConsumer price indexesimfSupply shocksimfPrice controlsimfEconomic theoryimfPrice indexesimfSupply and demandimfGovernment policyimfMongoliaimfInflation (Finance)FinanceInflationMacroeconomicsEconomic TheoryPrice LevelDeflationBusiness FluctuationsCyclesTime-Series ModelsDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsDiffusion ProcessesAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisPricesEconomic theory & philosophyFood pricesConsumer price indexesSupply shocksPrice controlsEconomic theoryPrice indexesSupply and demandGovernment policyBersch Julia1536617Barnett Steven1536618Ojima Yasuhisa1536619DcWaIMFBOOK9910786475003321Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia3785474UNINA