03441nam 22005774a 450 991078449000332120230523182852.01-281-02963-797866110296300-8157-2989-8(CKB)1000000000347452(EBL)3004460(OCoLC)173812431(SSID)ssj0000113175(PQKBManifestationID)11133755(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000113175(PQKBWorkID)10098179(PQKB)11676984(MdBmJHUP)muse35320(Au-PeEL)EBL3004460(CaPaEBR)ebr10193747(CaONFJC)MIL102963(MiAaPQ)EBC3004460(EXLCZ)99100000000034745220070709d2007 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrBlindside[electronic resource] how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /Francis Fukuyama, editorWashington, D.C. Brookings Institution Pressc20071 online resource (208 p.)"An American Interest Book."0-8157-2990-1 Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index.The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index."Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.Emergency managementUnited StatesInternational relationsEmergency managementInternational relations.363.34/7Fukuyama Francis231601MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910784490003321Blindside3729892UNINA