03406oam 2200601Ia 450 991078214790332120190503073344.00-262-29162-20-262-28387-51-4356-5499-4(CKB)1000000000536337(OCoLC)463189465(CaPaEBR)ebrary10235152(SSID)ssj0000163204(PQKBManifestationID)11167012(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000163204(PQKBWorkID)10108497(PQKB)10733619(OCoLC)244795966(OCoLC)991920208(OCoLC-P)244795966(MaCbMITP)7582(Au-PeEL)EBL3338904(CaPaEBR)ebr10235152(PPN)170238792(MiAaPQ)EBC3338904(EXLCZ)99100000000053633720080902d2008 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrGlobal catastrophes and trends the next 50 years /Vaclav SmilCambridge, Mass. MIT Press©20081 online resource (322 p.)Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph0-262-51822-8 0-262-19586-0 Includes bibliographical references and indexes.From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.Natural disastersEnvironmental risk assessmentENVIRONMENT/GeneralNatural disasters.Environmental risk assessment.363.34Smil Vaclav140188OCoLC-POCoLC-PBOOK9910782147903321Global catastrophes and trends3846696UNINA