06158oam 22012734 450 991077959350332120230802005947.01-61635-702-91-4755-9843-21-283-94779-X(CKB)2550000001003744(EBL)1607056(SSID)ssj0000943222(PQKBManifestationID)11515178(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943222(PQKBWorkID)10977688(PQKB)10756566(MiAaPQ)EBC1607056(Au-PeEL)EBL1607056(CaPaEBR)ebr10644356(CaONFJC)MIL426029(OCoLC)870245099(IMF)WPIEE2012270(IMF)WPIEA2012270(EXLCZ)99255000000100374420020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrOn the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage /Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, Filiz UnsalWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (42 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/12/270At head of title: Research Department -- verso of t.p."November 2012"-- verso of t.p.1-4755-7356-1 1-4755-8636-1 Includes bibliographical references (p. 22-25).Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households; 2.2 Firms and Production; 2.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policy; 2.4 Goods Market Equilibrium; 2.5 Storage and Oil Market Equilibrium; 3. Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Calibrated Parameters; 3.3 Prior Distributions and Estimation Results; 4. Conclusion; References; Appendix; Tables; 1. Calibrated parameters; 2. Prior distributions and posterior estimates (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 3. Variance decomposition (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 4. Variance decomposition (sample period: 2000Q1-2007Q4); Figures1. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock2. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock; 3. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supply shock; 4. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation storage demand shock; 5. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock with and without storage; 6. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock with and without storage; 7. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supplywith and without storageBuilding on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/270Petroleum productsPricesEconometric modelsPetroleum productsStorageInvestments: EnergyimfInflationimfMacroeconomicsimfEconomic TheoryimfGeneral Aggregative Models: KeynesimfKeynesianimfPost-KeynesianimfEnergy and the MacroeconomyimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfEnergy: GeneralimfCommodity MarketsimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisimfInvestment & securitiesimfEconomic theory & philosophyimfOil pricesimfOilimfCommodity price fluctuationsimfSupply shocksimfCommoditiesimfEconomic theoryimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfSupply and demandimfUnited StatesimfPetroleum productsPricesEconometric models.Petroleum productsStorage.Investments: EnergyInflationMacroeconomicsEconomic TheoryGeneral Aggregative Models: KeynesKeynesianPost-KeynesianEnergy and the MacroeconomyEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesEnergy: GeneralCommodity MarketsPrice LevelDeflationAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisInvestment & securitiesEconomic theory & philosophyOil pricesOilCommodity price fluctuationsSupply shocksCommoditiesEconomic theoryPetroleum industry and tradeSupply and demandUnalmis Deren1509554Unalmis Ibrahim1509555Unsal Filiz1476615International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910779593503321On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks3804903UNINA