06502oam 22014654 450 991077950040332120230802005526.01-4755-1691-61-4755-5824-4(CKB)2550000000107544(EBL)1606796(SSID)ssj0000953126(PQKBManifestationID)11551737(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000953126(PQKBWorkID)10910203(PQKB)10773241(MiAaPQ)EBC1606796(Au-PeEL)EBL1606796(CaPaEBR)ebr10579630(OCoLC)795743660(IMF)WPIEE2012153(IMF)WPIEA2012153(EXLCZ)99255000000010754420020129d2012 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrFiscal Foresight and Information Flows /Todd Walker, Eric Leeper, Susan YangWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (66 p.)IMF Working PapersDescription based upon print version of record.1-4755-7332-4 1-4755-0435-7 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Analytical Example; A. The Econometrics of Foresight; Figures; 1. Responses of Capital to Tax Increase; B. Generalizations; III. Quantitative Importance of Foresight; A. Modeling Information Flows; B. Model Descriptions; C. Information Flows and Estimation Bias; Tables; 1. Information Flow Processes; IV. Solving the Problem; 2. Output Multipliers for a Labor Tax Change; A. An Organizing Principle; B. Lines of Attack; 1. The Narrative Approach; 2. Conditioning on Asset Prices; 3. Direct Estimation of DSGE Model; V. Concluding Remarks; AppendicesI. Simulations Details II. Testing Economic Theory; III. Municipal Bonds and Fiscal Foresight: Additional Results; IV. Assessing the Ex-Ante Approach; ReferencesNews - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized information flows. Different methods for extracting or hypothesizing the information flows are discussed and shown to be alternative techniques for resolving a non-uniqueness problem endemic to moving average representations.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/153TaxationFiscal policyInformation theory in economicsEconometricsimfInvestments: BondsimfPublic FinanceimfTaxationimfFiscal PolicyimfFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: GeneralimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfTime-Series ModelsimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralimfPersonal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and SubsidiesimfTax LawimfInvestment & securitiesimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfPublic finance & taxationimfWelfare & benefit systemsimfMacroeconomicsimfTaxation & duties lawimfMunicipal bondsimfVector autoregressionimfExpenditureimfLabor taxesimfFiscal policyimfFinancial institutionsimfEconometric analysisimfTaxesimfTax lawimfTax policyimfBondsimfExpenditures, PublicimfIncome taximfLaw and legislationimfUnited StatesimfTaxation.Fiscal policy.Information theory in economics.EconometricsInvestments: BondsPublic FinanceTaxationFiscal PolicyFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: GeneralGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)Time-Series ModelsDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsDiffusion ProcessesNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: GeneralPersonal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and SubsidiesTax LawInvestment & securitiesEconometrics & economic statisticsPublic finance & taxationWelfare & benefit systemsMacroeconomicsTaxation & duties lawMunicipal bondsVector autoregressionExpenditureLabor taxesFiscal policyFinancial institutionsEconometric analysisTaxesTax lawTax policyBondsExpenditures, PublicIncome taxLaw and legislationWalker Todd1481157Leeper Eric1481158Yang Susan1481159National Bureau of Economic Research.DcWaIMFBOOK9910779500403321Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows3698040UNINA