04688nam 22005773 450 991077864140332120231002180355.01-280-21186-597866102118690-309-55730-50-585-00194-4(CKB)111000211177052(EBL)3377179(SSID)ssj0000177387(PQKBManifestationID)12055483(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000177387(PQKBWorkID)10210461(PQKB)11490061(MiAaPQ)EBC3377179(EXLCZ)9911100021117705220160215d1991|||| uy 0engtxtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierImproving information for social policy decisionsVol. 1Review and recommendations : the uses of microsimulation modelingWashington :National Academies Press,1991.1 online resource (346 pages) illustrations0-309-04541-X Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Summary; IMPROVING THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS: INVESTMENT PRIORITIES; Validation; Better Data; THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY ANALYSIS TOOL; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing Technology; Validation; Documentation and Archiving; The Structure of the Community; The Use of Microsimulation for Basic Research; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING POLICY ANALYSIS; Data; Validation; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODELS; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing TechnologyHealth Care and Retirement Policy Modeling Validation; Documentation and Archiving; Structure of the Microsimulation Modeling Community; 1 Introduction; A SCENE IN WASHINGTON, D.C.; THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS; THE PANEL STUDY; Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward A Second Revolution; 2 The Search for Useful Information; THE FIRST INFORMATION REVOLUTION; POLICY ANALYSIS: BETWEEN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND POLITICS; A CASE STUDY OF POLICY ANALYSIS: THE FAMILY SUPPORT ACT OF 1988; Provisions That Could Be Estimated With Microsimulation ModelsProvisions That Could Not Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models Problems in the Estimation Process; 3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis; A STRATEGY FOR INVESTMENT; DATA QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY; Investment in Data Production; Coordination of Data Production; Broadened Data Collection; Linking Survey and Administrative Data; Adding Value to Existing Data; VALIDATION; The Difficulty of Validation; Kinds of Model Validation; External Validation; Internal Validation; Investment in Model Validation; DOCUMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION OF THE RESULTS OF POLICY ANALYSISDocumentation and Archiving as Aids to Validation Communicating Validation Results to Decision Makers; Appendix Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals; MODELS; UNCERTAINTY OF AN ESTIMATE; CONDITIONAL VERSUS UNCONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; AN ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAM; Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool; 4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now; BASIC ELEMENTS OF MICROSIMULATION MODELS; DEVELOPMENT OF MICROSIMULATION MODELING FOR POLICY ANALYSIS; Origins: 1950's to mid-1960's; Development of Static Models: Late 1960's to Early 1980'sDevelopment of Dynamic Models: 1970's to Early 1980's Retreats and Advances: The 1980's; ROLE AND CURRENT STATUS OF MICROSIMULATION: FINDINGS; Overall Value; A Range of Policy Analysis Tools; Analytical Costs; Model Uncertainty; Data Adequacy; Research Knowledge; Computer Technologies; Microsimulation Modeling Community; Future Directions; 5 Databases for Microsimulation; DATA QUALITY: THE MARCH CPS; Survey-Based Problems; Coverage; Response Rates; Sampling Error; Missing Detail; Data Omissions; STRATEGIES FOR TREATING MISSING AND ERRONEOUS DATA; Disaggregation; Imputation for Item NonresponseImputation for Items Not CollectedPublic welfareDecision makingSocial policyDecision makingSocial policySimulation methodsDecision makingMathematical modelsPublic welfareDecision makingSocial policyDecision makingSocial policySimulation methodsDecision makingMathematical models361.6/1AU-PeELAU-PeELAU-PeELBOOK9910778641403321Improving information for social policy decisions3753028UNINA