05501nam 2200673 450 991046402120332120170815101934.01-4623-5277-41-4527-7229-01-282-84055-X1-4518-6961-49786612840555(CKB)3170000000055008(EBL)1607845(SSID)ssj0000944028(PQKBManifestationID)11612513(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000944028(PQKBWorkID)10982587(PQKB)10695672(OCoLC)815737345(MiAaPQ)EBC1607845(EXLCZ)99317000000005500820140226h20082008 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrExternal shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico how important are U.S. factors? /Sebastian Sosa[Washington, District of Columbia] :International Monetary Fund,2008.©20081 online resource (33 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/100Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1415-6 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Econometric Model; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; C. Estimation Issues; III. The Role of U.S. Demand and Other External Shocks in Mexican Output Fluctuations..; Tables; 1. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period; 2. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: Post-NAFTA; Figures; 1. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 3. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)4. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand)2. Response of Real Output to a U.S. GDP Shock; 5. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using U.S. Real Interest Rate as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions); 3. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Imports Shock; 6. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using VIX Volatility Index as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions)7. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: Post-NAFTA Period (Using Junk Bond Yields as a Proxy for International Financial Conditions)8. Variance Decomposition of Mexican Real Output: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 9. Size of the Shocks and Output Response in Mexico: 1980Q1-2007Q2; 4. Response of Real Output to a U.S. Demand Shock (Post-NAFTA and 1980-2007); IV. Capturing U.S. Demand Linkages to Mexico: Which U.S. Variables Help Explain Fluctuations in Mexican Economic Activity?; A. Bivariate VARs: Variance Decomposition Analysis; B. Synchronization Between the U.S. and Mexican Economies10. Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs11. Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables: Bivariate VARs; 5. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 12. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP and U.S. Variables; 13. Cross Correlations of Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; 6. Synchronization Between Mexican Exports and U.S. Variables; V. U.S. Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: Potential Spillovers and Channels of Transmission; 7. Synchronization Between Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables; A. Explaining Services Sector GDP, with Unrestricted VAR Models14. Cross Correlations of Mexican GDP (Services) and U.S. Variables15. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services; 16. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. GDP as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 8. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Industrial Production Shock; 17. Variance Decomposition of Mexico's Real Output in Services (Using U.S. Imports as a Proxy for U.S. Demand); 9. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. GDP Shock; 10. Response of Real Output in Services to a U.S. Imports Shock; B. Channels Other Than External Trade?VI. Concluding RemarksThis paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large share of Mexico's macroeconomic fluctuations after NAFTA. This partly reflects greater trade integration-but also Mexico's ""Great Moderation,"" as the country escaped its former pattern of macro-financial crises. In this period, Mexico's output fluctuations have been closely synchronized with the U.S. cycIMF Working PapersBusiness cyclesMexicoEconometric modelsMexicoForeign economic relationsUnited StatesEconometric modelsMexicoEconomic conditionsEconometric modelsElectronic books.Business cyclesEconometric models.338.542Sosa Sebastian867567MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910464021203321External shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico2127309UNINA