04786nam 2200721 450 991046402020332120190214191848.01-4623-2552-11-4527-9448-097866128411321-282-84113-01-4518-7020-5(CKB)3170000000055003(EBL)1607840(SSID)ssj0001488793(PQKBManifestationID)11863883(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001488793(PQKBWorkID)11463818(PQKB)11588299(OCoLC)466183813(MiAaPQ)EBC1607840(EXLCZ)99317000000005500320140226h20082008 uy 0engtxtccrVacation over implications for the Caribbean of opening U.S.-Cuba tourism /Rafael Romeu ; authorized for distribution by Andy Wolfe[Washington, District of Columbia] :International Monetary Fund,2008.©20081 online resource (64 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/162Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1473-3 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Adapting Gravity Trade Theory; III. Data; IV. Estimation; V. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism; 2. Destination Tourist Base Concentration; 3. OECD and Caribbean Country Groups; 4. Hurricanes Making Landfall, 1995-2004; 5. Gravity Estimates of Caribbean Tourism; 6. Cuba: Estimates of Bilateral Tourist Arrivals; 7. The Impact on the Caribbean of Opening U.S. tourism to Cuba; 8. Alternative Estimates of U.S.-Cuba Unrestricted Tourism in the Caribbean; 9. Model 1: Projected Arrivals from Gravity Estimates10. Model 3: Long-term Gravity Estimation with Industry Costs Figures; 1. OECD Tourist Arrivals; 2. Cuba-U.S. Tourism Distortions; 3. Evolution of Cuba in Caribbean Tourism; 4. Distribution of Tourist within Destinations; 5. Top Five Clients of Caribbean Destinations, 1995-2004; 6. Top Five Destinations of OECD Visitors, 1995-2004; 7. Clustering by Tourism Preferences 1995-2004; 8. Clustering by Fundamentals and Culture; 9. Cost Comparison Across Caribbean; 10. Market Concentration Based on Hotel Rooms, 1996-2004; 11. Airlines Owned by OECD and Caribbean Countries12. Modeling of Tourist from the U.S.A 13. Modeling of Tourist Arrivals to Cuba; 14. Hotel Capacity Utilization; 15. Before and After Assuming U.S. Tourists New to Caribbean; 16. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming All New U.S. Tourists; 17. Before and After Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 18. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 19. Map Assuming U.S. Arrivals Divert from the Rest of the Caribbean; 20. Caribbean by U.S. Arrivals and OECD by Arrivals to Cuba; 21. Gravity Estimates of Long-term Adjustment of Destinations; 22. Pie Charts of Gravity Estimates23. Gravity Estimates of Percent Change in Arrivals 24. OECD, Caribbean, Relative Size with Open Tourism; VI. References; VII. AppendixAn opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market shIMF Working PapersTourismCaribbean AreaEconometric modelsTourismCubaEconometric modelsInternational economic relationsEconometric modelsTourismEconometric modelsCubaForeign economic relationsUnited StatesEconometric modelsUnited StatesForeign economic relationsCubaEconometric modelsElectronic books.TourismEconometric models.TourismEconometric models.International economic relationsEconometric models.TourismEconometric models.338.47917290452Romeu Rafael1028311Wolfe Andy1028312MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910464020203321Vacation over2444282UNINA