03857nam 22006011a 450 991046399960332120170817212522.01-4623-5173-51-4527-1071-61-4518-7306-997866128437231-282-84372-9(CKB)3170000000055310(EBL)1608375(SSID)ssj0000942100(PQKBManifestationID)11510041(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942100(PQKBWorkID)10964508(PQKB)10843389(OCoLC)645191528(MiAaPQ)EBC1608375(EXLCZ)99317000000005531020100304d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrMacroeconomic fluctuations in the Caribbean[electronic resource] the role of climatic and external shocks /prepared by Sebastian Sosa and Paul Cashin[Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept.20091 online resource (29 p.)IMF working paper ;WP/09/159"July 2009."1-4519-1734-1 Contents; I. Introduction; II. Econometric Approach; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; Tables; 1. Block Exogeneity Restrictions of the VAR Model; C. Estimation; III. Business Cycle Responses to External Shocks: Empirical Results; 2. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean; 3. Climatic Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; Figures; 1. Natural Disasters and GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean; 2. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks; 3. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks4. Oil Price Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU4. Response of Real Output to Oil Price Shocks; 5. Real GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean and Industrial Countries; 5. External Demand Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; 6. Response of Real Output to External Demand Shocks; 6. World Real Interest Rate Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; IV. Concluding Remarks; 7. Response of Real Output to World Real Interest Rate Shocks; Appendix Tables; A1. Antigua and Barbuda: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A2. Dominica: Variance Decomposition of Real OutputA3. Grenada: Variance Decomposition of Real OutputA4. St. Kitts and Nevis: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A5. St. Lucia: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A6. St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; ReferencesThis paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuationIMF working paper ;WP/09/159.Natural disastersEconomic aspectsCaribbean AreaEconomic conditionsElectronic books.Natural disastersEconomic aspects.Sosa Sebastian867567Cashin Paul872375International Monetary Fund.Western Hemisphere Dept.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910463999603321Macroeconomic fluctuations in the Caribbean1947651UNINA