03081nam 2200613Ia 450 991046399140332120170817212416.01-4623-6888-31-4527-4804-71-282-84389-397866128438911-4518-7325-5(CKB)3170000000055330(EBL)1608415(SSID)ssj0001477421(PQKBManifestationID)11818672(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477421(PQKBWorkID)11450170(PQKB)11762841(OCoLC)649426821(MiAaPQ)EBC1608415(EXLCZ)99317000000005533020100421d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrIncorporating market information into the construction of the fan chart[electronic resource] /prepared by Selim Elekdag and Prakash Kannan[Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund, Research Dept.20091 online resource (23 p.)IMF working paper ;WP/09/178"August 2009."1-4519-1751-1 Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; ReferencesThis paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.IMF working paper ;WP/09/178.Economic forecastingEconometric modelsTime-series analysisElectronic books.Economic forecastingEconometric models.Time-series analysis.336.54Elekdag Selim894667Kannan Prakash876248International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910463991403321Incorporating market information into the construction of the fan chart2110723UNINA01576nam0-2200445---450 99000561130020331620220711164819.0000561130USA01000561130(ALEPH)000561130USA0100056113019981214d1972----|||y0itaa50------baitait0 00|||50 anni di comportamentismoun'analisi teorica della contingenza di rinforzoBurrhus F. Skinner.introduzione di F. P. Coluccitraduzione di F. P. Colucci e B. VenturiniMilanoILI1972347 p.20 cmCampus14Trad. di: Condingencies of reinforcement2001Campus14001SA00087052001Contingencies of reinforcementBurrhus F. Skinner.50598Cinquanta anni di comportamentismoun'analisi teorica delle contingenze di rinforzoSA0027587Comportamentismo.FMILANO150.194 3SKINNER,Burrhus Frederic127522COLUCCI,Francesco PaoloVENTURINI,B.ITSA20111219990005611300203316Dipar.to di Filosofia - SalernoDFF.V. SKI (617)1834 FILXV.17. 516 (F.V. SKI) (617)1834 FILXV.17450963BKBehaviorismo.Comportamentismo.SAC008640FVER20121027USA01152520121027USA011614Contingencies of reinforcement50598UNISA