03493nam 2200673 450 991046361850332120170815101946.01-4623-1341-81-4527-4908-61-4518-7024-81-282-84117-39786612841170(CKB)3170000000055071(EBL)1607942(SSID)ssj0001477988(PQKBManifestationID)11892589(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477988(PQKBWorkID)11453221(PQKB)10440308(OCoLC)761928073(MiAaPQ)EBC1607942(EXLCZ)99317000000005507120140227h20082008 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation /Helge Berger and Emil Stavrev ; authorized for distribution by Jörg Decressin[Washington, District of Columbia] :International Monetary Fund,2008.©20081 online resource (31 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/166Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1477-6 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Models of Inflation; A. DSGE Models; B. Partial Equilibrium Models; C. Empirical Models; IV. Empirical Methods and Data; A. Estimation Techniques; B. Prior Distribution of Parameters for the Bayesian Estimates; C. Forecasting and the Information Content of Money; D. Data; V. Results; A. The Marginal Contribution of Money; Figures; 1. Forecast Performance of DSGE Models; 2. Forecast Performance of Empirical Models; 3. Forecast Performance of P* and Phillips Curve Models; B. Comparison of Money-Based Models; C. Comparison Across All ModelsTables1. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Models; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendices; I. Empirical Specifications; II. Bayesian PriorsThis paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of monIMF Working PapersMonetary policyEconometric modelsMoneyEconometric modelsInflation (Finance)ForecastingEconometric modelsElectronic books.Monetary policyEconometric models.MoneyEconometric models.Inflation (Finance)ForecastingEconometric models.332.46Berger Helge857877Stavrev Emil857610Decressin Jörg860299MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910463618503321The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation1919622UNINA