03973nam 2200625Ia 450 991046279840332120211027232708.00-674-07602-80-674-07598-610.4159/harvard.9780674075986(CKB)2670000000368510(EBL)3301313(SSID)ssj0000886816(PQKBManifestationID)11548578(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000886816(PQKBWorkID)10835556(PQKB)10243512(MiAaPQ)EBC3301313(DE-B1597)209758(OCoLC)843880768(OCoLC)853269171(DE-B1597)9780674075986(Au-PeEL)EBL3301313(CaPaEBR)ebr10713640(EXLCZ)99267000000036851020121101d2013 uy 0engurnn#---|u||utxtccrTychomancy[electronic resource] inferring probability from causal structure /Michael StrevensCambridge, Mass. Harvard University Press20131 online resource (280 p.)Description based upon print version of record.0-674-07311-8 Includes bibliographical references and index.Front matter --CONTENTS --FIGURES --AUTHOR'S NOTE --PHYSICAL INTUITION --I. 1859 --1. THE APRIORIST --2. THE HISTORICAL WAY --3. THE LOGICAL WAY --4 THE COGNITIVE WAY --II. EQUIDYNAMICS --5. STIRRING --6. SHAKING --7. BOUNCING --8. UNIFYING --III. BEYOND PHYSICS --9. 1859 AGAIN --10. APPLIED BIOEQUIDYNAMICS --11. INACCURACY, ERROR, AND OTHER FLUCTUATIONS --IV. BEFORE AND AFTER --12. THE EXOGENOUS ZONE --13. THE ELEMENTS OF EQUIDYNAMICS --14. PREHISTORY AND META - HISTORY --NOTES --GLOSSARY --REFERENCES --INDEXTychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities.EmpiricismInferenceProbabilitiesElectronic books.Empiricism.Inference.Probabilities.003/.1Strevens Michael1031705MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910462798403321Tychomancy2487075UNINA01177nam0 22003013i 450 SBL020834020231121125817.020121107d1972 ||||0itac50 baspaesz01i xxxe z01nPoética para un poetaLas Cartas literarias a una mujer de BécquerFrancisco López EstradaMadridGredos 1972246 p.21 cm.Biblioteca románica hispánica. 2, Estudios y ensayos176001CFI00663362001 Biblioteca románica hispánica. 2, Estudios y ensayos176Bécquer, Gustavo AdolfoFIRRMLC093343I861.5POESIA SPAGNOLA, 1800-189921Lopez Estrada, FranciscoRAVV079296070387144ITIT-0120121107IT-FR0017 Biblioteca umanistica Giorgio ApreaFR0017 SBL0208340Biblioteca umanistica Giorgio Aprea 52MAG 5 Coll P II 176 52FLS0000078915 VMB RS A 2012110720121107 52Poetica para un poeta945905UNICAS