03957nam 2200601Ia 450 991046202070332120200520144314.01-61399-226-2(CKB)2670000000278138(EBL)3405004(SSID)ssj0000756284(PQKBManifestationID)12300636(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000756284(PQKBWorkID)10750842(PQKB)10637876(MiAaPQ)EBC3405004(Au-PeEL)EBL3405004(CaPaEBR)ebr10619575(OCoLC)923391429(EXLCZ)99267000000027813820120504d2010 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrMaking good decisions[electronic resource] /Reidar B. Bratvold, Steve H. BeggRichardson, TX Society of Petroleum Engineersc20101 online resource (215 p.)Description based upon print version of record.1-55563-258-0 Includes bibliographical references (p. [187]-194) and indexes.""Preface""; ""Contents""; ""1-Decision Making and Uncertainty in the Exploration and Production Industry""; ""1.1 Introduction""; ""1.2 Decisions in the Exploration and Production (E&P) Industry""; ""1.3 Decision Making""; ""1.4 Uncertainty and Decision Making""; ""1.5 Using Models""; ""1.6 Subsequent Chapters""; ""1.7 Suggested Reading""; ""2-How to Make Good Decisions""; ""2.1 Introduction""; ""2.2 High-Level Decision-Making Methodology""; ""2.3 Decision Elements""; ""2.4 A Decision-Making Methodology""; ""2.5 Phase 1: Framing or Structuring""; ""2.6 Phase 2: Modeling and Evaluating""""2.7 Phase 3: Assessing and Deciding""""2.8 Assessing Decision Quality""; ""2.9 Summary""; ""2.10 Suggested Reading""; ""3-Quantifying Uncertainty""; ""3.1 Introduction""; ""3.2 Uncertain Variables""; ""3.3 The Nature of Probability""; ""3.4 The Basics""; ""3.5 Updating Probabilities With New Information""; ""3.6 Probability Models""; ""3.7 Summary""; ""3.8 Suggested Reading""; ""4-Monte Carlo Simulation""; ""4.1 Introduction""; ""4.2 Procedure""; ""4.3 Sensitivity Analysis""; ""4.4 Dependencies""; ""4.5 Expected Value Revisited""; ""4.6 Suggested Reading""""5-Structuring and Solving Decision Problems""""5.1 Decision-Tree Elements""; ""5.2 Building Decision Trees""; ""5.3 Tree Size and Compact Notation""; ""5.4 Solving Decision Trees""; ""5.5 Risk Profiles""; ""5.6 Sensitivity Analysis""; ""5.7 Decision Trees in the Context of Decision-Making Methodology""; ""5.8 Summary""; ""5.9 Suggested Reading""; ""6-Creating Value From Uncertainty""; ""6.1 Updating Probabilities With New Information""; ""6.2 Value of Information""; ""6.3 Value of Flexibility""; ""6.4 Discussion""; ""6.5 Implementation Issues""; ""6.6 Additional Reading""""7-Behavioral Challenges in Decision Making""""7.1 Introduction""; ""7.2 The Two Decision Systems""; ""7.3 Biases in Judgment and Decision Making""; ""7.4 Eliciting and Encoding Probabilities""; ""7.5 Summary�Why We Need Help""; ""7.6 Suggested Reading""; ""Appendix A""; ""Glossary""; ""References""; ""Author Index""; ""Subject Index""Decision makingPetroleum engineeringDecision makingPetroleum industry and tradeManagementDecision makingElectronic books.Decision making.Petroleum engineeringDecision making.Petroleum industry and tradeManagementDecision making.Bratvold Reidar B(Reidar Brumer)944884Begg Steve944885Society of Petroleum Engineers (U.S.)MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910462020703321Making good decisions2133204UNINA