03691nam 2200613Ia 450 991046197310332120200520144314.01-4755-9375-91-4755-6554-2(CKB)2670000000278811(EBL)1606993(SSID)ssj0000939842(PQKBManifestationID)11489722(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939842(PQKBWorkID)10939182(PQKB)10432131(MiAaPQ)EBC1606993(Au-PeEL)EBL1606993(CaPaEBR)ebr10627032(OCoLC)870245052(EXLCZ)99267000000027881120111102d2012 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrPublic debt dynamics[electronic resource] the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks /prepared by Reda Cherif and Fuad HasanovWashington, DC International Monetary Fund20121 online resource (29 p.)IMF working paper ;12/230Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-4127-9 1-4755-1055-1 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV-); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix AA2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix BWe study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an IMF Working PapersDebts, PublicInflation (Finance)Electronic books.Debts, Public.Inflation (Finance)Cherif Reda882104Hasanov Fuad1978-882105MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910461973103321Public debt dynamics1970341UNINA