04174nam 2200697 450 991046073530332120200121145140.01-317-11799-91-4724-6891-01-4724-6890-2(CKB)3710000000498160(EBL)4054881(OCoLC)929532515(SSID)ssj0001570485(PQKBManifestationID)16219569(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001570485(PQKBWorkID)14118531(PQKB)10918323(MiAaPQ)EBC4054881(MiAaPQ)EBC4107692(MiAaPQ)EBC5293074(Au-PeEL)EBL4054881(CaPaEBR)ebr11117522(CaONFJC)MIL882347(Au-PeEL)EBL4107692(CaPaEBR)ebr11122813(Au-PeEL)EBL5293074(CaONFJC)MIL924955(OCoLC)1027160040(EXLCZ)99371000000049816020200121h20162015 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrIn pursuit of foresight disaster incubation theory re-imagined /Mike LauderFirst edition.London ;New York, New York :Routledge,2016.©20151 online resource (243 p.)Description based upon print version of record.1-4724-6889-9 Includes bibliographical references and index.Cover; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Acknowledgements; 1 In Appreciation of Barry Turner; Introduction; Aim; Disaster Incubation Theory Described; Disaster Incubation Theory Sta ges; Case Studies; Reshaping Turner's Model; Conclusion; 2 Selecting a Framework for Foresight; Introduction; Selection of a Framework; Approach; Chaos as the Norm; Conclusion; 3 Issues for Foresight; Introduction; Issues of Interest; Universals; Causes; Catalytic Questions; Conclusion; 4 Debate Framework; Introduction; Developing a Catalytic Framework; Generalisation; Intelligent CountermovesForesight or HindsightFramework; Conclusion; 5 Lesson to be Learnt; Introduction; Turner's Phenomena; Revised Questions; The "What"; The "How"; Conclusions; 6 Pursuing Foresight; Introduction; Looking Back; Looking Forward; Using the Cube; Conclusion; Epilogue; Bibliography; IndexMany inquiry reports blame management for their failures of foresight. These reports are based on the premise that, with a little more thought, these oversights, and so the crisis, would have been avoided. Is it really that simple? The important question is whether, without hindsight, it would have even been possible to identify the actual factors that lead to the failure. This book explores this issue as a practical problem. The book takes Barry Turner's Disaster Incubation Theory as its central theme. The first chapter explores the way Turner structured his theory and the way it has been used, before re-imagining it as a way to fostering foresight. The next three chapters examine key issues in detail. They explain why Turner's model was chosen, outline the issues that need to be considered when seeking to prevent such failures and how to use the proposed frameworks. Chapter 5 examines the lessons learnt from this study and, in particular, looks at the mental approach required when seeking such foresight. Finally, Chapter 6 provides a fully worked example. It uses work by Frank Stech who has applied Turner's theory to a past case.Crises occur everywhere and we continue to struggle to avoid them. In this book Mike Lauder provides executives with thinking tools to help them avoid missing the warning signs of their next crisis.Risk managementEmergency managementElectronic books.Risk management.Emergency management.658.4/77Lauder Mike862138MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910460735303321In pursuit of foresight1924531UNINA