03694nam 2200649Ia 450 991045285220332120200520144314.01-4755-4031-01-4755-3997-51-283-86673-01-4755-8835-6(CKB)2550000000709408(EBL)1607037(SSID)ssj0000942959(PQKBManifestationID)11515165(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942959(PQKBWorkID)10974670(PQKB)11361725(MiAaPQ)EBC1607037(Au-PeEL)EBL1607037(CaPaEBR)ebr10635352(CaONFJC)MIL417923(OCoLC)815561883(EXLCZ)99255000000070940820121231d2012 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrOil and the world economy[electronic resource] some possible futures /Michael Kumhof and Dirk MuirWashington, D.C. International Monetary Fund20121 online resource (32 p.)IMF working paper ;WP/12/256Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-8664-7 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity ScenarioC. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario7. Technology Externality and Larger Shock Scenarios8. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity ScenarioThis paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in theIMF Working PapersPetroleum productsEconomic geographyElectronic books.Petroleum products.Economic geography.Kumhof Michael866240Muir Dirk968523International Monetary Fund.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910452852203321Oil and the world economy2199925UNINA