04234nam 2200649Ia 450 991045257390332120200520144314.01-4755-2461-71-4755-9607-31-283-86688-91-4755-4455-3(CKB)2550000000709423(EBL)1607033(SSID)ssj0000949363(PQKBManifestationID)11509013(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949363(PQKBWorkID)10997650(PQKB)10328861(MiAaPQ)EBC1607033(Au-PeEL)EBL1607033(CaPaEBR)ebr10635358(CaONFJC)MIL417938(OCoLC)815548260(EXLCZ)99255000000070942320121231d2012 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy[electronic resource] /Paul Cashin ... [et al.]Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund20121 online resource (42 p.)IMF working paper ;WP/12/253Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-9715-0 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* ModelsLag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VARmodel, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2?2011Q2, to discriminatebetween supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile oftheir macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economicconsequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typIMF Working PapersPetroleum reservesEconomic aspectsEconomicsElectronic books.Petroleum reservesEconomic aspects.Economics.Cashin Paul872375International Monetary Fund.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910452573903321The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy2200187UNINA