03679nam 2200769 a 450 991045109690332120210603221709.01-281-43112-597866114311290-226-77474-010.7208/9780226774749(CKB)1000000000409872(EBL)408200(OCoLC)476227911(SSID)ssj0000116138(PQKBManifestationID)11125109(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000116138(PQKBWorkID)10033391(PQKB)10034829(MiAaPQ)EBC408200(DE-B1597)535685(OCoLC)1058444031(DE-B1597)9780226774749(Au-PeEL)EBL408200(CaPaEBR)ebr10230055(CaONFJC)MIL143112(EXLCZ)99100000000040987219930405d1993 uy 0engurun#---|u||utxtccrBusiness cycles, indicators, and forecasting[electronic resource] /edited by James H. Stock and Mark W. WatsonChicago University of Chicago Pressc19931 online resource (350 p.)Studies in business cycles ;v. 28Description based upon print version of record.0-226-77488-0 Includes bibliographical references and indexes.Front matter --Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research --Contents --Acknowledgments --Introduction --1. Twenty-two Years of the NBERASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance --2. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience --3. Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation --4. A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model --5. Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? --6. Further Evidence on Business- Cycle Duration Dependence --7. A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections --8. Modeling Nonlinearity over the Business Cycle --Contributors --Author Index --Subject IndexThe inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.Studies in business cycles ;no. 28.Economic forecastingCongressesEconomic indicatorsCongressesBusiness cyclesCongressesEconomic forecastingUnited StatesCongressesEconomic indicatorsUnited StatesCongressesBusiness cyclesUnited StatesCongressesUnited StatesEconomic conditionsCongressesElectronic books.Economic forecastingEconomic indicatorsBusiness cyclesEconomic forecastingEconomic indicatorsBusiness cycles338.5/42Stock James H122895Watson Mark W119533MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910451096903321Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting1940958UNINA