04270nam 2200685 a 450 991045079850332120210617030220.01-281-12616-097866111261620-226-97892-310.7208/9780226978925(CKB)1000000000412969(EBL)408199(OCoLC)648335512(SSID)ssj0000116137(PQKBManifestationID)11145076(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000116137(PQKBWorkID)10050794(PQKB)11078167(MiAaPQ)EBC408199(DE-B1597)535788(OCoLC)781253320(DE-B1597)9780226978925(Au-PeEL)EBL408199(CaPaEBR)ebr10209937(CaONFJC)MIL112616(EXLCZ)99100000000041296920081215h19961992 uy 0engurnn#---|||||txtccrBusiness cycles[electronic resource] theory, history, indicators, and forecasting /Victor ZarnowitzPbk. ed.Chicago University of Chicago Press1996, c19921 online resource (614 p.)Studies in business cycles ;v. 27Description based upon print version of record.0-226-97891-5 0-226-97890-7 Includes bibliographical references and indexes.Front matter --National Bureau of Economic Research --Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research --Contents --Acknowledgments --Preface --I. THEORIES AND EVIDENCE --1. Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview --2. Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective --3. Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations --4. Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements --5. Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau --II. HISTORY AND MEASUREMENT --6. How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction --7. Business Cycles and Growth --8. The Regularity of Business Cycles --9. Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy --III. INDICATORS --10. Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses --11. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators --12. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes --IV. FORECASTING --13. On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions --14. An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts --15. The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts --16. Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts --17. Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction --18. The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting --References --Author Index --Subject IndexThis volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.Studies in business cycles ;no. 27.Business cyclesEconomic forecastingElectronic books.Business cycles.Economic forecasting.338.5/42338.542Zarnowitz Victor1919-2009.118949MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910450798503321Business cycles44082UNINA