03899nam 22006495 450 991037004810332120200704070217.03-030-32781-710.1007/978-3-030-32781-1(CKB)5280000000190150(MiAaPQ)EBC5996857(DE-He213)978-3-030-32781-1(EXLCZ)99528000000019015020191216d2020 u| 0engurcnu||||||||txtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierExperts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America /by Christian Dayé1st ed. 2020.Cham :Springer International Publishing :Imprint: Palgrave Macmillan,2020.1 online resource (259 pages)Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences3-030-32780-9 1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes. .This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert’s role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy. .Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human SciencesSociologyHistorical sociologyPolitical sociologyIntellectual life—HistoryUnited States—HistoryKnowledge - Discoursehttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X22120Historical Sociologyhttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X22130Political Sociologyhttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X22170Intellectual Studieshttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/729000US Historyhttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/718010Sociology.Historical sociology.Political sociology.Intellectual life—History.United States—History.Knowledge - Discourse.Historical Sociology.Political Sociology.Intellectual Studies.US History.301.0973Dayé Christianauthttp://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut923125MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910370048103321Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America2522950UNINA