04221nam 22007335 450 991025412280332120200704011157.0981-10-1113-310.1007/978-981-10-1113-9(CKB)3710000000686224(EBL)4532034(DE-He213)978-981-10-1113-9(MiAaPQ)EBC4532034(PPN)194076768(EXLCZ)99371000000068622420160516d2016 u| 0engur|n|---|||||txtrdacontentcrdamediacrrdacarrierNatural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me?[electronic resource] /by Isuri Wijesundera, Malka N. Halgamuge, Thrishantha Nanayakkara, Thas Nirmalathas1st ed. 2016.Singapore :Springer Singapore :Imprint: Springer,2016.1 online resource (143 p.)Springer Natural Hazards,2365-0656Description based upon print version of record.981-10-1111-7 Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index.The stochastic nature of disaster propagation -- Predicting Flood induced by cyclones -- How to forecast the spread of bushfires -- Propagation on a non-homogeneous media in the presence of bias -- Conclusion.The expected time of impact, also known as the mean first passage time (MFPT) to reach failure, is a critical metric in the management of natural disasters. The complexity of the dynamics governing natural disasters lead to stochastic behaviour. This book shows that state transitions of many such systems translate into random walks on their respective state spaces, biased and shaped by environmental inhomogeneity. Thus the probabilistic treatment of those random walks gives valuable insights of expected behaviour. A comprehensive case study of predicting cyclone induced flood is followed by a discussion of generic methods that predict MFPT addressing directional bias. This is followed by discussing MFPT prediction methods in systems showing network inhomogeneity. All presented methods are illustrated using real datasets of natural disasters. The book ends with a short discussion of possible future research areas introducing the problem of predicting MFPT for bush-fire propagation.Springer Natural Hazards,2365-0656Natural disastersComputer simulationEnvironmental monitoringComputersEnvironmental sciencesNatural Hazardshttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/G32000Simulation and Modelinghttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/I19000Monitoring/Environmental Analysishttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/U1400XInformation Systems and Communication Servicehttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/I18008Math. Appl. in Environmental Sciencehttps://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/U24005Natural disasters.Computer simulation.Environmental monitoring.Computers.Environmental sciences.Natural Hazards.Simulation and Modeling.Monitoring/Environmental Analysis.Information Systems and Communication Service.Math. Appl. in Environmental Science.363.349Wijesundera Isuriauthttp://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut1064991Halgamuge Malka Nauthttp://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/autNanayakkara Thrishanthaauthttp://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/autNirmalathas Thasauthttp://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/autMiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910254122803321Natural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me2542183UNINA