04321nam 22006014a 450 991021996400332120200520144314.01-282-45150-297866124515080-8330-3604-1(CKB)111090529190260(EBL)197476(OCoLC)475901580(SSID)ssj0000153780(PQKBManifestationID)11137310(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000153780(PQKBWorkID)10393479(PQKB)11380994(Au-PeEL)EBL197476(CaPaEBR)ebr10056144(MiAaPQ)EBC197476(EXLCZ)9911109052919026020030130d2003 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrFault lines in China's economic terrain /Charles Wolf, Jr. ... [et al.]1st ed.Santa Monica, CA RAND20031 online resource (237 p.)"Prepared for the Office of Net Assessment, Dept. of Defense and the Smith Richardson Foundation."0-8330-3344-1 Includes bibliographical references (p. 181-194) and index.COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - POTENTIAL ADVERSITIES CONFRONTING CHINA'S CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH; PART I - CHINA'S INSTITUTIONAL AND STRUCTURAL FAULT LINES; Chapter Two - MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT AND RURAL POVERTY; Chapter Three - ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CORRUPTION; PART II - SECTORAL FAULT LINES; Chapter Four - EPIDEMIC DISEASE: A WILD CARD IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC FUTURE?; CHINA'S HEALTH PROGRESS SINCE THE "LIBERATION": A LONG MARCH AGAINST INFECTIOUS AND PARASITIC DISEASECHINA'S CURRENT HEALTH PROFILE IN INTERNATIONAL AND GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR EPIDEMIC DISEASE IN CONTEMPORARY CHINA: THE RISKS OF BEHAVIOR-BORNE COMMUNICABLE ILLNESSES; MODELING POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES FOR AN HIV EPIDEMIC IN CHINA; ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA OF HIV"BREAKOUT""; Chapter Five - WATER RESOURCES AND POLLUTION; ESTIMATING WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND; IDENTIFYING THE CONSEQUENCES OF FLOOD, WATER SHORTAGE, AND POLLUTION ON THE ECONOMY; ALTERNATIVES TO ABATE THE PROBLEM, AND THE EXPECTED COST AND BENEFITS; ECONOMIC AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONSChapter Six - GDP EFFECTS OF AN ENERGY PRICE SHOCK SOME BASIC DATA ON THE CHINESE ENERGY SECTOR AND CHINESE GDP; OIL PRICE EFFECTS OF A "SEVERE" OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION; EFFECTS ON CHINESE GDP; PART III - FINANCIAL FAULT LINES; Chapter Seven - CHINA'S FRAGILE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES; AN INEFFECTUAL CENTRAL BANK; A FRAGILE COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEM; UNREGULATED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS; ADVERSE SCENARIOS: FINANCIAL CRISES AND SLACK ECONOMIC GROWTH; Chapter Eight - POSSIBLE SHRINKAGE OF FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS; INTRODUCTION: SOME RELEVANT BACKGROUNDWHAT WILL AFFECT FDI IN CHINA IN THE 2002-2010 PERIOD? EFFECTS OF FDI ON CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH; CONCLUSIONS; PART IV - SECURITY FAULT LINES; Chapter Nine - TAIWAN AND OTHER POTENTIAL CONFLICTS; BACKGROUND AND CURRENT STATUS; THE POSSIBILITY OF SERIOUS DETERIORATION FROM THE STATUS QUO; OTHER CONFLICT POSSIBILITIES; Chapter Ten - CONCLUSIONS: FAULT LINES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC TERRAIN; FINDINGS AND BOTTOM LINES; EPILOGUE; BIBLIOGRAPHY; ABOUT THE AUTHORS; INDEXThe authors consider how and by how much China?s stellar economic performance might be impaired by eight potential adversities that China may face in the next decade: unemployment, poverty, and social unrest; corruption; HIV/AIDS and epidemic diseases; water resource problems and pollution; energy consumption and prices; the fragile financial system and state-owned enterprises; curtailed foreign direct investment; and serious military conflicts.Public healthChinaChinaEconomic conditions2000-ChinaSocial conditions2000-Public health330.951Wolf Charles1924-125219MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910219964003321Fault lines in China's economic terrain2009093UNINA