04977oam 22013574 450 991016294430332120230808201439.01-4755-6768-51-4755-6770-7(CKB)3710000001045031(MiAaPQ)EBC4800299(IMF)WPIEA2016251(EXLCZ)99371000000104503120020129d2016 uf 0engurcnu||||||||rdacontentrdamediardacarrierFinancial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts /Sophia Chen, Romain RanciereWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2016.1 online resource (34 pages) illustrations, tablesIMF Working Papers1-4755-6317-5 Includes bibliographical references.We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2016/251Economic forecastingEconomic indicatorsCreditBanks and BankingimfMacroeconomicsimfMoney and Monetary PolicyimfReal EstateimfInvestments: BondsimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfFinancial Markets and the MacroeconomyimfMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and SimulationimfPrice LevelimfInflationimfDeflationimfHousing Supply and MarketsimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralimfMacroeconomics: ConsumptionimfSavingimfWealthimfGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfProperty & real estateimfFinanceimfMonetary economicsimfInvestment & securitiesimfAsset pricesimfHousing pricesimfYield curveimfCreditimfGovernment consumptionimfPricesimfBond yieldsimfFinancial institutionsimfMoneyimfNational accountsimfHousingimfInterest ratesimfConsumptionimfEconomicsimfBondsimfUnited StatesimfEconomic forecasting.Economic indicators.Credit.Banks and BankingMacroeconomicsMoney and Monetary PolicyReal EstateInvestments: BondsForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsFinancial Markets and the MacroeconomyMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and SimulationPrice LevelInflationDeflationHousing Supply and MarketsInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: GeneralMacroeconomics: ConsumptionSavingWealthGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)Property & real estateFinanceMonetary economicsInvestment & securitiesAsset pricesHousing pricesYield curveCreditGovernment consumptionPricesBond yieldsFinancial institutionsMoneyNational accountsHousingInterest ratesConsumptionEconomicsBonds330.0112Chen Sophia1208992Ranciere Romain1168798DcWaIMFBOOK9910162944303321Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts3650000UNINA