04773oam 22013334 450 991015501320332120200520144314.01-4755-5375-71-4755-5389-7(CKB)3710000000973033(MiAaPQ)EBC4867574(Au-PeEL)EBL4867574(CaPaEBR)ebr11391098(CaONFJC)MIL974474(OCoLC)965708504(IMF)WPIEA2016218(EXLCZ)99371000000097303320020129d2016 uf 0engurcnu||||||||rdacontentrdamediardacarrierTo Bet or Not to Bet : Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile /Fabio Comelli, Esther Perez RuizWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2016.1 online resource (23 pages) illustrations (some color), tablesIMF Working Papers1-4755-5359-5 Includes bibliographical references.A strand of research documents Chile’s copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices’ sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rekindled the debate on Chile’s adjustment capacity to external shocks. Following Malz (2014), this paper builds a time-varying measure of copper price uncertainty using options contracts. VAR analysis shows that the investment response to an uncertainty shock of average magnitude in the sample is strong and persistent: the cumulative fall in investment from trend at a one-year horizon ranges 2–5.8 percentage points; and it takes between 1½ and 2 years for investment to return to its trend level. Empirical ranges depend on alternative definitions for investment, uncertainty, and options’ maturing time.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2016/218CopperPricesChileInvestments: MetalsimfForeign ExchangeimfInvestments: OptionsimfMacroeconomicsimfIntertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or FinancingimfInvestmentimfCapitalimfIntangible CapitalimfCapacityimf'Panel Data ModelsimfSpatio-temporal Models'imfMetals and Metal ProductsimfCementimfGlassimfCeramicsimfPrice LevelimfInflationimfDeflationimfPension FundsimfNon-bank Financial InstitutionsimfFinancial InstrumentsimfInstitutional InvestorsimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfFinanceimfInvestment & securitiesimfMetal pricesimfAsset pricesimfExchange ratesimfOptionsimfCopperimfPricesimfFinancial institutionsimfCommoditiesimfMetalsimfDerivative securitiesimfChileimfCopperPricesInvestments: MetalsForeign ExchangeInvestments: OptionsMacroeconomicsIntertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or FinancingInvestmentCapitalIntangible CapitalCapacity'Panel Data ModelsSpatio-temporal Models'Metals and Metal ProductsCementGlassCeramicsPrice LevelInflationDeflationPension FundsNon-bank Financial InstitutionsFinancial InstrumentsInstitutional InvestorsCurrencyForeign exchangeFinanceInvestment & securitiesMetal pricesAsset pricesExchange ratesOptionsCopperPricesFinancial institutionsCommoditiesMetalsDerivative securities338.23Comelli Fabio1082917Perez Ruiz Esther1449460DcWaIMFBOOK9910155013203321To Bet or Not to Bet3647759UNINA